Sometimes I think the Premier League clubs have done it to themselves. They've allowed the transfer market to go nuts.
I mean, Arsenal once signed a 16 year old unproven Theo Walcott for at least £5million, potentially rising to £12million - he hadn't played a game in the Premier League yet. Shaun Wright-Phillips had played in the Premier League and for England, but £21million was paid by Chelsea for him to just be a squad player in 2005. Manchester City payed a then club record £19million for Brazilian Jo who had only managed to make a name for himself in Russia, to see him barely score or play. Manchester United signed a 19 year old Anderson for a reported £18million when he had barely proved himself in Portugal. David Nugent was taken to the Premier League for £4.5million after what was only an adequate lower leagues career and a surprising England call up where he stole a goal on the line in Andorra.
If you look around the Premier League, every club has paid record fees for previously unproven or unsuccessful players. Lots haven't worked out. Should it really surprise us then that a player who followed an inspirational half of Champions League football against Inter Milan with a couple of years of personal reputation enhancement, whilst not translating this to real success for his team, is now the subject of a world record transfer bid?
The £85+ Gareth Bale deal is reportedly close to completion as I write this. All this money for a player who hasn't won a trophy. He hasn't even pushed his team into the top four of it's division - he was fairly regular but not a driving force in Spurs' 2009-10 season when they finished fourth. It was only in the back stages of this season that he found himself a regular in the position he would begin to tear teams apart from, before he was an attacking full-back who couldn't find himself in a Tottenham winning team.
What about the signings coming in to the Premier League? How do they rank in this world of crazy money?
Well, the biggest deals have yet to be struck with Wayne Rooney still sulking and Luis Suarez not having promises kept to him. However, both are likely to move when money around £50million gets put on the table.
However, the biggest deal so far strikes of the craziness of the transfer merry-go-round. Manchester City have paid £30million for a Brazilian midfielder who has played most of his career in the Ukraine. Yes he has played plenty of Champions League football and has a UEFA Cup winning medal to complement all his domestic titles with Shaktar, but is a 28 year old with only 5 international caps who has never played in a top league really worth £30million?
City have spent biggest overall as well. Montenegro international Stevan Jovetic cost £22million from Fiorentina. Never won anything major, but experienced international and only 23 years old. Potentially overpriced. £20million went to Sevilla for Alvaro Negredo, a goal every other game striker with 14 Spain caps. 27 years old - compare it to the Spurs-Soldado I'll discuss below and its probably quite reasonable, but otherwise its silly money. Around £15million for Jesus Navas isn't lots by City's standards and he has featured in Spain World Cup and European Championship winning sides. Vastly experienced in Europe and a top league, maybe this one is sensible.
Tottenham are looking to compensate for Bale somewhat by signing Robeto Soldado for £26million. Developed at Real Madrid and featuring at all levels of the Spain youth teams, he has some pedigree. A decent goal scoring record in a three year stay at Valencia and a goal every other game in his 11 cap senior international career suggest he could be worth the spend. Again though, he's a player who hasn't won anything during his career. All this money for a dependable rather than prolific goal scorer who hasn't really led his team to much success. And at 28, is he going to improve to a world class standard?
Spurs' other big money signing is Paulinho from Brazillian side Corinthians for around £17million. He has European experience, but only in Lithuania and Poland, but in his South American career he has some significant silverware - a Cope Libertadores and a FIFA Club World Cup. He also played a part in the semi- and final wins for Brazil in this years Confederations Cup in the warm up to next years World Cup. He'll be keen to play well to keep himself in the national team picture for that world cup and add to his 17 caps so far. At 24, maybe this isn't so ridiculous.
There have been a few other eye catching deals. Chelsea paid £18million for promise in terms of young German Andre Schurrle, but 7 goals for Germany in 24 games is impressive - just getting into that squad as a forward is good work. Its massive money, but compared to some signings that have been made this year and in the last decade or so, this one isn't that crazy. Although, describing an £18million deal as not being that crazy just shows where we are.
Lower down the league, Victor Wanyama has only one season of major European football, playing and impressing in the Champions League with Celtic in 2012-13 season, but managed to command a £12.5miilion fee to take him to Southampton. A player worth less than a million two years ago is now apparently worth over £10million. Cardiff have arrived in the Premier League with a club record signing at £7.5million in Andreas Cornelius. Who? Well, he's a 20 year old Dane and has come from FC Copenhagen where he was top scorer in their most recent season - his only full professional season. Yep, that's right, one season in Denmark and he's apparently worth £7.5million. In my opinion this could be the craziest deal of them all.
Does anyone have their own personal favourite modern extravagance of a football signing for the new season? And does anyone really thing any player, let alone one that hasn't really done very much yet, should command the £100million Spurs are 'holding out for' in their negotiations with Real Madrid? Comment away football fans.
Wednesday 7 August 2013
Friday 2 August 2013
England's World Cup Half Back Options
Probably the most difficult positions England (or Great Britain) have found to fill in the last 20 years have been the crucial 6 and 7 positions.
Since 2008, 13 different combinations have started international matches for England. That starts to underline the problem, although Kevin Sinfield and Richie Myler have formed a bit of a regular pairing in the recent past. The real problem though is no-one knows who to pick, and arguments can be made for a number of players.
The front-runners and most mentioned names are Sinfield, Myler, Rangi Chase and Gareth Widdop. A host of other players could also be considered in the reckoning based on being in and around the England squads in recent years - Rob Burrow, Danny McGuire, Matty Smith, Jonny Lomax and Stefan Ratchford are those I see as being the outside chances of World Cup places, not to mention Danny Brough who has firmed tied himself to Scotland's cause now.
Burrow has played a lot of dummy half (you can't call him a hooker!), Lomax has predominantly been seen as a full-back this year at St Helens and Ratchford has played across the back line for Warrington, but all these players would are naturals in the halves. Their numbers are skewed by the positions they've played, but they are definite options for England.
Here are this season's current numbers for the players in the hunt (as of 1 August 2013 - Super League or NRL games only) to see how the players are going - (note: the available NRL stats aren't consistent with the Super League ones so Gareth Widdop is missing some numbers, and different positions played by some players affects some numbers, which I will try and point out where needed)
I'm going to start with Kevin Sinfield. It seems that he will be the captain of the team, so it would be a massive shock if he doesn't play. Some talk has been had about him being used at hooker if James Roby doesn't get over his injury issues, and people are still confused about the number 13 he wears on his Leeds shirt, but if he plays I can't see it being outside of the halves.
His leadership shouldn't be questioned, so with his club record so great in big matches you have to credit him in that regard and feel that will work in his favour for England selection. A big factor in close games is goal kicking, and of the kickers in the sample he is performing the best this year at 87% success. These factors almost makes him worth his place you would feel.
He also leads the group in some defensive categories - total tackles, marker tackles and tackles per game - as well as having an good tackle success percentage (93%). These numbers might be bumped up from a half back perspective because he tends to defend more central than halves as Rob Burrow is hidden out wide when he is playing a dummy half role. This forces more defensive involvement and it should be noted he give away the most penalties of the player looked at.
The real criticism is his offensive productivity - he isn't likely to break the line or bust a tackle very much and he hasn't had much immediate impact on tries being scored, with a contribution of less than a one try or assist per game. Given how often he is on the ball, it has to be considered a weakness that he isn't creating more scores.
Richie Myler has been his chief partner of late in England sides. Myler has been impressive this year in taking more responsibility in organising and running the Warrington attack in Lee Briers extended absences. Contributing tries is the biggest positive for him - having scored the most and assisted the second most of England's options. Only Rangi Chase, who touches the ball a lot more, makes more metres per game out of the players who have played in the halves predominantly this year. He can break tackles and hit gaps as well as get the ball away to teammates. He is definitely a threat in attack, maybe more across the board than any of the other options.
As well as the organisation concerns that he now seems to have put to bed, the main question over Myler might be defence. A 90% tackle success, a low number of penalties and a reasonable effort as a marker defender suggest he might have upped his game in this area too. That leaves only his long kicking game as a potential issue, but if he has Sinfield and Sam Tomkins around then he has support in that area.
Rangi Chase is a controversial figure in this shake up. Many don't see him as being an acceptable choice because of his eligibility being on a residency basis. But he is available so I'll not dwell on that issue.
He leads many categories in the sample when it comes to having ball in hand - tackle busts, carries, gaining metres, attacking kicks and offloads are all things he does in greater amounts than the others. He has also kicked a few 40/20s, which can be useful. As you would expect with the player who touches the ball the most, he also makes the most errors, although an average of almost 2 per game could be regarded as too high when England will be playing teams that can take advantage.
He is a creative players who tries things and pulls things off that other players simply can't do, but the big question is in defence. He has the worst tackle success of the group by a wide margin, especially from his main rivals for the places, and this is despite him being by far the least active in defence (aside from Lomax, who having played mostly full-back wouldn't be called on to tackle often being behind the defensive line). Chase only makes 7.3 successful tackles per match and he has missed more tackles than any other player. Temperament may also be an issue with previous history of suspension and being the only England eligible player to have spent time in the sin-bin this year.
Gareth Widdop is a player who hasn't been given a starting role in the halves for England yet. This is despite the major point on his side that he is the only option with NRL experience, and some experience at that winning the Grand Final with Melbourne in 2012 and getting a big money contract with St George for 2014 onwards.
His stats are hard to judge as they aren't complete and I can't be sure they are recorded consistently with the Super League numbers. The areas he performs best are average gain per carry and the relatively low error count. His try involvement is very low and he doesn't carry the ball much, although he has to compete with the Queensland and Australia 'Big 3' for play making responsibilities and who wouldn't play second fiddle to them. His defensive numbers aren't great either though, but I would put a big asterisk on all his figures in that he does play in the better stronger competition. He also has an injury question mark, with his NRL season almost certainly ended by injury already.
Of the rest, Rob Burrow's lack of errors is impressive, but his high number of dummy half runs can partially be ignored when considering him as a half. His versatility could help hm feature in the squad and the odd burst out of dummy half from him could be dangerous, but I'm not looking at him as a 'hooker' option here. He hasn't missed many tackles, but he doesn't make many either and often get helped out by his teammates, so I don't know how much you can read into this.
Danny McGuire is another like Sinfield and Widdop who hasn't really created a great deal for teammates. He has missed quite a lot of the season with injury and doesn't stand out in any of the categories. He hasn't really performed at the international level in the past and his chance may have ran out because of his lack of impact on the current season, although with Leeds you never know what form might be to come from August onwards, which might put him more in the picture.
Matty Smith got into the frame during the 2012 Exiles series and then got a move to Wigan where he will experience a final and playoff football for the first time as a key player in the team. He has shown usefulness in 40/20 and drop goal kicking, but I'm not sure this is enough to overcome some of the other issues. His defending isn't always brilliant, although a 93% tackle success is promising. He doesn't make many metres himself and doesn't directly get involved in many tries, even though he often features in the build up. The biggest plus for him is a pre-existing relationship with Sam Tomkins for those sweep plays you would look to use Sam on, but I can't see that getting him selected. He is only really an option if others get injured before October.
Jonny Lomax hasn't been playing in the halves, which accounts for his low tackle and kicking numbers. He hasn't given away many penalties or errors, but his relative lack of involvement would be a cause for this. He is another who has missed a lot of play through injury and seeing him in the full-back role for Saints means he too would only be an option if there are injuries to other, despite he definite talent and creative potential.
Stefan Ratchford is an interesting one for me. His versatility and club form could see him find a place in the squad yet, but his lack of game time as a half might work against him getting that 6 shirt on his back. He has good numbers for tackle busts and breaks, but this will be assisted by him running in the centres where you get more space and often oppose smaller players. He has a glorious natural talent for the game, but I don't really see him making the final cut unfortunately - he isn't first choice for his club so you wouldn't expect him to be for his country.
One final player to look at is Danny Brough, who we know won't be playing for England. He has had a great season so far with Huddersfield. He has been very creative and his kicking game, whether attacking or from deep (6 40/20s), has been a massive factor in Huddersfield's season. He's a good goal kicker, although second to Sinfield. He doesn't have stand out defensive numbers and you think he can be targeted, particularly by direct running second row forwards. He would be a very nice option for England and I'd probably on form have him in my starting pair despite some defensive questions but he'll be leading Scotland instead.
So, who would I pick. Well for all the criticism I've labelled at Sinfield for years as I feel he has been overrated as a player, you can't overrate him as a leader. He is the captain and I would pick him in my half back combo. His kicking game can be a momentum changer as he quickly drives penalties to touch or knocks over goals from all angles. Also, we'll need to defend hard and physically against the Aussies and Kiwis and his added size and tackling numbers will help in that regards. You can surround him with speed and spark in the other six backs with the talent available to Steve McNamara in a fully fit England squad.
Alongside him I would pick Richie Myler. They've developed some rapport in the last four or five England games and he does have the attacking spark Sinfield might lack whilst not being as much of a liability as Rangi Chase can be when he doesn't come off, which against the best in the world it will be hard to do for an inconsistent and often very individual talent.
Widdop does play NRL but he won't be match ready you have to expect. I also wouldn't play him with Sinfield as I don't think there would be enough creativity and sharp attacking instinct in front of some tough defensive lines. If he were fit, and if Sinfield weren't the captain, then I'd probably put the 6 shirt on his back. In an ideal world I think I would want Widdop and Brough in this world cup squad as the starting halves, but Sinfield and Myler are the best combination that will be available in my opinion.
Since 2008, 13 different combinations have started international matches for England. That starts to underline the problem, although Kevin Sinfield and Richie Myler have formed a bit of a regular pairing in the recent past. The real problem though is no-one knows who to pick, and arguments can be made for a number of players.
The front-runners and most mentioned names are Sinfield, Myler, Rangi Chase and Gareth Widdop. A host of other players could also be considered in the reckoning based on being in and around the England squads in recent years - Rob Burrow, Danny McGuire, Matty Smith, Jonny Lomax and Stefan Ratchford are those I see as being the outside chances of World Cup places, not to mention Danny Brough who has firmed tied himself to Scotland's cause now.
Burrow has played a lot of dummy half (you can't call him a hooker!), Lomax has predominantly been seen as a full-back this year at St Helens and Ratchford has played across the back line for Warrington, but all these players would are naturals in the halves. Their numbers are skewed by the positions they've played, but they are definite options for England.
Here are this season's current numbers for the players in the hunt (as of 1 August 2013 - Super League or NRL games only) to see how the players are going - (note: the available NRL stats aren't consistent with the Super League ones so Gareth Widdop is missing some numbers, and different positions played by some players affects some numbers, which I will try and point out where needed)
I'm going to start with Kevin Sinfield. It seems that he will be the captain of the team, so it would be a massive shock if he doesn't play. Some talk has been had about him being used at hooker if James Roby doesn't get over his injury issues, and people are still confused about the number 13 he wears on his Leeds shirt, but if he plays I can't see it being outside of the halves.
His leadership shouldn't be questioned, so with his club record so great in big matches you have to credit him in that regard and feel that will work in his favour for England selection. A big factor in close games is goal kicking, and of the kickers in the sample he is performing the best this year at 87% success. These factors almost makes him worth his place you would feel.
He also leads the group in some defensive categories - total tackles, marker tackles and tackles per game - as well as having an good tackle success percentage (93%). These numbers might be bumped up from a half back perspective because he tends to defend more central than halves as Rob Burrow is hidden out wide when he is playing a dummy half role. This forces more defensive involvement and it should be noted he give away the most penalties of the player looked at.
The real criticism is his offensive productivity - he isn't likely to break the line or bust a tackle very much and he hasn't had much immediate impact on tries being scored, with a contribution of less than a one try or assist per game. Given how often he is on the ball, it has to be considered a weakness that he isn't creating more scores.
Richie Myler has been his chief partner of late in England sides. Myler has been impressive this year in taking more responsibility in organising and running the Warrington attack in Lee Briers extended absences. Contributing tries is the biggest positive for him - having scored the most and assisted the second most of England's options. Only Rangi Chase, who touches the ball a lot more, makes more metres per game out of the players who have played in the halves predominantly this year. He can break tackles and hit gaps as well as get the ball away to teammates. He is definitely a threat in attack, maybe more across the board than any of the other options.
As well as the organisation concerns that he now seems to have put to bed, the main question over Myler might be defence. A 90% tackle success, a low number of penalties and a reasonable effort as a marker defender suggest he might have upped his game in this area too. That leaves only his long kicking game as a potential issue, but if he has Sinfield and Sam Tomkins around then he has support in that area.
Rangi Chase is a controversial figure in this shake up. Many don't see him as being an acceptable choice because of his eligibility being on a residency basis. But he is available so I'll not dwell on that issue.
He leads many categories in the sample when it comes to having ball in hand - tackle busts, carries, gaining metres, attacking kicks and offloads are all things he does in greater amounts than the others. He has also kicked a few 40/20s, which can be useful. As you would expect with the player who touches the ball the most, he also makes the most errors, although an average of almost 2 per game could be regarded as too high when England will be playing teams that can take advantage.
He is a creative players who tries things and pulls things off that other players simply can't do, but the big question is in defence. He has the worst tackle success of the group by a wide margin, especially from his main rivals for the places, and this is despite him being by far the least active in defence (aside from Lomax, who having played mostly full-back wouldn't be called on to tackle often being behind the defensive line). Chase only makes 7.3 successful tackles per match and he has missed more tackles than any other player. Temperament may also be an issue with previous history of suspension and being the only England eligible player to have spent time in the sin-bin this year.
Gareth Widdop is a player who hasn't been given a starting role in the halves for England yet. This is despite the major point on his side that he is the only option with NRL experience, and some experience at that winning the Grand Final with Melbourne in 2012 and getting a big money contract with St George for 2014 onwards.
His stats are hard to judge as they aren't complete and I can't be sure they are recorded consistently with the Super League numbers. The areas he performs best are average gain per carry and the relatively low error count. His try involvement is very low and he doesn't carry the ball much, although he has to compete with the Queensland and Australia 'Big 3' for play making responsibilities and who wouldn't play second fiddle to them. His defensive numbers aren't great either though, but I would put a big asterisk on all his figures in that he does play in the better stronger competition. He also has an injury question mark, with his NRL season almost certainly ended by injury already.
Of the rest, Rob Burrow's lack of errors is impressive, but his high number of dummy half runs can partially be ignored when considering him as a half. His versatility could help hm feature in the squad and the odd burst out of dummy half from him could be dangerous, but I'm not looking at him as a 'hooker' option here. He hasn't missed many tackles, but he doesn't make many either and often get helped out by his teammates, so I don't know how much you can read into this.
Danny McGuire is another like Sinfield and Widdop who hasn't really created a great deal for teammates. He has missed quite a lot of the season with injury and doesn't stand out in any of the categories. He hasn't really performed at the international level in the past and his chance may have ran out because of his lack of impact on the current season, although with Leeds you never know what form might be to come from August onwards, which might put him more in the picture.
Matty Smith got into the frame during the 2012 Exiles series and then got a move to Wigan where he will experience a final and playoff football for the first time as a key player in the team. He has shown usefulness in 40/20 and drop goal kicking, but I'm not sure this is enough to overcome some of the other issues. His defending isn't always brilliant, although a 93% tackle success is promising. He doesn't make many metres himself and doesn't directly get involved in many tries, even though he often features in the build up. The biggest plus for him is a pre-existing relationship with Sam Tomkins for those sweep plays you would look to use Sam on, but I can't see that getting him selected. He is only really an option if others get injured before October.
Jonny Lomax hasn't been playing in the halves, which accounts for his low tackle and kicking numbers. He hasn't given away many penalties or errors, but his relative lack of involvement would be a cause for this. He is another who has missed a lot of play through injury and seeing him in the full-back role for Saints means he too would only be an option if there are injuries to other, despite he definite talent and creative potential.
Stefan Ratchford is an interesting one for me. His versatility and club form could see him find a place in the squad yet, but his lack of game time as a half might work against him getting that 6 shirt on his back. He has good numbers for tackle busts and breaks, but this will be assisted by him running in the centres where you get more space and often oppose smaller players. He has a glorious natural talent for the game, but I don't really see him making the final cut unfortunately - he isn't first choice for his club so you wouldn't expect him to be for his country.
One final player to look at is Danny Brough, who we know won't be playing for England. He has had a great season so far with Huddersfield. He has been very creative and his kicking game, whether attacking or from deep (6 40/20s), has been a massive factor in Huddersfield's season. He's a good goal kicker, although second to Sinfield. He doesn't have stand out defensive numbers and you think he can be targeted, particularly by direct running second row forwards. He would be a very nice option for England and I'd probably on form have him in my starting pair despite some defensive questions but he'll be leading Scotland instead.
So, who would I pick. Well for all the criticism I've labelled at Sinfield for years as I feel he has been overrated as a player, you can't overrate him as a leader. He is the captain and I would pick him in my half back combo. His kicking game can be a momentum changer as he quickly drives penalties to touch or knocks over goals from all angles. Also, we'll need to defend hard and physically against the Aussies and Kiwis and his added size and tackling numbers will help in that regards. You can surround him with speed and spark in the other six backs with the talent available to Steve McNamara in a fully fit England squad.
Alongside him I would pick Richie Myler. They've developed some rapport in the last four or five England games and he does have the attacking spark Sinfield might lack whilst not being as much of a liability as Rangi Chase can be when he doesn't come off, which against the best in the world it will be hard to do for an inconsistent and often very individual talent.
Widdop does play NRL but he won't be match ready you have to expect. I also wouldn't play him with Sinfield as I don't think there would be enough creativity and sharp attacking instinct in front of some tough defensive lines. If he were fit, and if Sinfield weren't the captain, then I'd probably put the 6 shirt on his back. In an ideal world I think I would want Widdop and Brough in this world cup squad as the starting halves, but Sinfield and Myler are the best combination that will be available in my opinion.
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