Although lots of people think the RFL wanted a Wigan v Warrington final, I don't expect any less of an enthralling occasion with this match-up between the teams involved in what is argued to be the best ever final in 1985 in front of apparently over 99,000 people at old Wembley! The two Wigan - Warrigton games this year have been great but I think this Wigan v Hull final can be every bit as good as any game we've seen in the northern hemisphere this season.
On that day in 1985 it was only goal kicking that split the teams on the scoreboard, coincidentally just as it was when the two teams met earlier in 2013 at the KC stadium, Wigan coming home with a 28-20 win as the teams shared 8 tries equally but Pat Richards nailing six from six kicks, to Joe Westerman's two goals.
Head to head
Wigan have won 8 in a row against Hull since 2009. That has included a 46-0, a 56-12 and a 48-10. Overall in the Super League years the record is:
That all looks a bit one-sided, but I wouldn't expect a one-sided game at Wembley. We should look at the most recent history to get a better indicator.
Here are the stats from the first meeting between the sides this season, which Wigan won 28-20 at the KC Stadium:
Many of the key categories are close - metres, tackle success, clean breaks are Phil Clarke's Key Performance Indicators. Wigan edged metres and Hull edges the other two KPIs, but the difference in all is marginal - I'm sure if it were on Sky Phil would have had this as a draw.
Stats
What about the numbers this season? Do they give any clues on what we might see on 24 August?
One thing that should make the game very competitive is the defences on display. Hull are the most prolific tacklers in the Super League this year so should be used to defending when they come up against a Wigan team that tend to have more possession than most, whilst Wigan have the tightest defence for conceding points. We also have the two teams with the fewest missed tackles in the league, so we should get the sort of intensity in collision that we see week in week out Down Under.
Hull's clear problem has been in attack. They've made just above average metres, but only hapless London and Salford have scored fewer points, only those two and Bradford fewer tries, and they haven't been too hot in kicking goals either - though that might change with Danny Tickle fit again if he takes back the goal-kicking duties.
Wigan haven't struggled in attack over the whole - top scorers, most tries, most breaks, second in carries, third in metres. Wigan don't make many offloads, but they play a game that creates space through quick play of the balls and numbers of runners in motion on each play so that they find space and gaps to run through. However, in big games (semi-final aside!) against the top sides away from the DW Stadium Wigan have found scoring harder to come by - 10 points at Huddersfield, 14 points at Leeds, 12 points at Warrington, 16 points at Saints (only reaching 20 points v Leeds at Magic Weekend). If Hull can play like a top side, they can restrict some of Wigan's attacking shape and might be able to stifle the force of the Wigan way like others have. A note of caution though, Sam Tomkins missed three of those away games at top sides.
Hull kick the ball plenty and will look to turn Wigan around and get into their tackling often. Wigan on the other hand make such good metres that you'll see a lot of attacking kicks putting Hull under pressure in their own 20m area. Forty-twenties are something to keep an eye on, both teams have two players with more than one each this season, but on a big Wembley pitch we might not see any unfortunately - what a momentum swinger it would be if one of the outstanding kickers on show delivers.
Key men
Sam Tomkins - Sam is the man at Wigan. I know a lot of people think Sean O'Loughlin is as important or more important to the way the team goes, and I see where they're coming from, but the numbers suggest one thing - Sam in the Man. In Wigan's 2013 Super League campaign he makes the most metres per game and has put on the most tries for his team mates in the Wigan squad. He is second to Josh Charnley in tries scored and clean breaks, but averages slightly more per game than Charnley. Wigan have a win percent of 92.5% in the 20 games (all competitions) Tomkins has played in, but only 33% in the 6 games he has missed and Sam has had a direct hand in scoring or assisting 32% of Wigan's 133 Super League tries. He is the player with the most individual potential to win this match in an attacking system that is designed around the game-breaking ability of his incredible talent.
Sean O'Loughlin - Whilst Sam Tomkins brings the finishing touches to many Wigan plays, you can bet inspirational captain O'Loughlin has had a hand in the scoring set somewhere. Leading by example rather than command, 'Lockers' has proved himself integral to Wigan's play in both attack and defence. Although the numbers aren't as stand out as for Tomkins, Wigan have 86.1 win % when O'Loughlin plays and 62.5 win % when he doesn't play in 2013 (Wigan are 78.8% for the whole season). The stats don't quite bear it out, but anyone who was watching Wigan play without their club captain in home games recently against Castleford and Bradford who then compares the attacking fluidity with the cup quarter- and semi-final when he did play will realise the important role he plays in linking and guiding the attack around the pitch. One key role he fulfils is he sticks his hand up to do hard carries on early tackles in his own half, as well as then being able to play as a pivot when his team reach the opposition half. Defensively too, O'Loughlin is massive for Wigan. In Super League he has a tackle success of nearly 95%, made all the more impressive by his work rate in defence meaning he is second only to Liam Farrell in average tackles and marker tackles per game. The all-around importance of Wigan's leader can't be overstated and he will be key if he is to climb those Wembley steps to lift the trophy as he did in 2011.
Daniel Holdsworth - Sean O'Loughlin was Wigan's man of the match in their semi-final, Daniel Holdsworth got the nod in his team's defeat of in form cup holders Warrington. That in itself should undermine his big game importance. Hull have 60 win % when he plays compared to the team's 59% win-ratio in the league this season, so that suggests he makes only makes a slight difference, but he was in place to help his team to wins against Warrington, rivals Hull KR and Leeds in a brilliant May run for the team. Young Jacob Miller has a lot of potential and Aaron Heremaia never lets his side down, but Holdsworth has the experience, vision and kicking game to lead his team around the park.
Danny Houghton - Houghton is just a machine in attack and defence. Capable of going the full 80 and not letting his standards drop, he can have even greater impact when spelled with Heremaia. He leads Super League in tackles, marker tackles and runs from dummy half and, impressively for someone so involved, he makes few errors and rarely concedes a penalty. He sets the pace for Hull in both attack and defence. His form is such that he might edge his way into the England World Cup reckoning, he really has been playing that well. He doesn’t miss many games so it's impossible to tell what impact it would have on the team if he weren't there, but you have to think it would be noticeable given the standards this player sets. Wigan can't allow him to set off on the back of quick play of the balls as both Catalan and Warrington saw what damage this can do to retreating defence in the past two rounds of the competition.
Obviously these are the only very good players on each team. Shannon McDonnell is having a strong season for Hull and Michael McIlorum will be dangerous out of dummy half in opposition to their counterparts discussed above. Wigan have great experience in the likes of Pat Richards and Harrison Hansen, matched by players like Andy Lynch and Gareth Ellis in FC's squad. Josh Charnley and Darrell Goulding up against Tom Briscoe and Kirk Yeaman should be a great all English match-up. Danny Tickle for Hull and Lee Mossop for Wigan, both confirmed departures from their clubs at the season's end, will want to leave on a high with a cup winners medal too.
Others to watch
Anthony Gelling - Beyond the headline names, there are a few player I think could make an impact that you might not be expecting to. For me, Gelling is one such player if he is picked to play left centre. Since getting a run at centre his numbers have improved across the board, particularly in attack. Other than try scoring, he has been a revelation in what many see as his best position, making 121m per game and seeming to win almost every collision he carries the ball into. Sure he is impulsive and a risk taker, who doesn't always concentrate, but he is a different player to what Wigan have elsewhere because of this. In a tight game a bit of variation or a brilliant offload that isn't in the normal structured pattern of Wigan's play could break things right open - Gelling brings that threat.
Scott Taylor - A Hull lad and former Robin, you have to think he'll be up for this if picked. Scott has been building an increasing reputation amongst the Wigan fans and a level of excitement is beginning to grow every time he touches the ball, with goo reason too - he leads all Wigan props in yards per carry this season and despite limited minutes with all but one appearance being off the bench, he has averaged 90 metres per game. His defence has been questioned, even by his coach, but it must be his positioning that was the problem because he is successful in 95% of his tackles. He didn't play against Hull FC the first time around this season, but I think this is an opportunity he wouldn't want to let pass him by. Whether he'll be selected or not, I'm not sure, but he has been going the right way about putting himself in the frame.
Tom Lineham - This is a player who on this season's form could have been named in the key players list. He has overshadowed his more experienced wing partner Tom Briscoe in more ways than one and it was arguably his 90m try than turned the semi-final around and provided Hull the impetus to go on and win. He is Hull's second top try scorer behind his centre partner Ben Crooks, who I could have picked out as well, but the real reason Lineham is singled out here is that he scored a hat-trick in the meeting between these sides at the KC. He has proved to be a threat to this strong Wigan defence.
Liam Watts - Watts is a player I've always liked the look of since he broke through with FC's cross-city rivals, although he doesn't seem to have reached his potential yet for what ever reason. Not many Hull players are making massive individual yards per game, but his 89m per game puts him second amongst the Hull props and he is also third best in tackles per game for FC, complementing this with a 95% tackle success. Watts had a good game against Wigan in April meeting between the sides, with 120 metres (2nd only to fullback McDonnell, and only by 4m) and 28 successful tackles.
I'm not going to make a prediction what with my team playing in the game, so all that's left to say is I hope everyone enjoys the game and as long as Rugby League is the winner then it should be a great occasion.
NOTE: All stats and rankings correct at time of publishing. Most stats adapted from Super League website.
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