Super League has had play offs since 1998 and the NRL has been the premier Southern Hemisphere competition since that year too, following the end of the 'Super League War' down there. In both competitions the play off format has changed around a bit in the 15 seasons that have been completed since 1998. However, one constant is that at some point one of the rounds has seen one or more teams earn a week off.
The number of teams enjoying a rest and the point in the series this comes has varied, particularly in Super League, but this rest at the 'business end' of the season is perceived to be a benefit. However, there is the counter argument that a team benefits from a run of games at this point in the season and form may be better than a interrupting this with a week off.
The table below shows how teams have responded to the week off since 1998 in Super League and the NRL when up against unrested opponents. I've also added the numbers for the NFL as a point of comparison - obviously this is a different sport, but I think the physicality and intensity is comparable.
In the NFL the week off is awarded purely on the regular season performance - the week missed is the first week of the play offs. In the NRL the rest week comes as reward for league position and a win in play off week 1 - in 1998 there was a 10 team play off with two teams earning a week 1 rest, but since the rest has been week 2. In Super League, 1998 to 2001 saw a week 1 and week 3 rest for one team, 2002-2008 saw two teams miss week 1 then play each other in week 2 (so no advantage over opponent) with the winner of that getting a rest in week 3 too, 2009 onwards sees the two best ranked week 1 winners earn a week 2 rest.
As you'll see from the above table, a week off in Rugby League doesn't really offer a great advantage over the following week's opponents who haven't had a rest. In Super League more teams have actually been beaten after the rest than have won, and in the NRL rested teams are only just ahead in wins when playing an unrested opponents.
Conversely, in the NFL a victory by the rested team is more than twice as regular than a defeat. What is interesting about this is the rest is always week 1, before the teams have played a knock out game. Looking at Super League, when the rest was in week 1 between 1998-2001, three of four times the rested team won (although none of two week 1 rested teams won in 1998 NRL). This does suggest that the most beneficial rest in terms of the next game you'll play is week 1 - across the three leagues in the two sports the total for week 1 rested v unrested is 44-22 in their week 2 match-ups (67% win rate). Week 2 rested teams are 20-16 in week 3 match-ups on unrested opponents (56% win rate). Week 3 rested teams are 5-8 in week 4 (the Grand Final for Super League 1998-2008 - 38% win rate in this small sample).
Where the rest is week 1, the rested teams have been consistently the better teams all season. When the rest isn't this week, there is a chance the best team doesn't get the rest. This is a likely explanation to why more week 1 rested teams win against an unrested opponent the next week than other rest schedules. The numbers also suggest you don't want to be interrupted once you start playing knock out play off games - you still want a rest, but you're better off getting your rest before you get into play off game mode.
All this has shown though is what you're likely to do in the week after you've rested, when you come up against an unrested opponent at this time of the year. Surely the bigger question is what impact a rest has on your overall chances of ultimately winning the title? The following table shows the same leagues over the same years indicating if the Grand Final / Super Bowl winner enjoyed a play off rest or played every week.
Here, things look different. 10 of the last 15 Super League and NRL Grand Final winners enjoyed a rest week during the play off run (67%). 8 Super Bowl winners enjoyed a rest, but this is only 53%, so the eventual winner is almost as likely to have carried momentum through.
Rest is more beneficial in Rugby League than American Football. Play off momentum seems to be less important in the long-run, probably because in Rugby League it isn't truly knock-out all the way - better regular season teams get second chances, whereas in NFL after the rest you have no second chance.
In the week 2 rest week systems, those played in Super League and NRL now, it switches to 10-8 (56%).
So, hard fought wins for the Warriors, Wolves, Rabbitohs and Roosters means what exactly? Well, they are slightly more likely to win in week 3 after their week 2 rest, and having rested, they are slightly more likely to go on and win the the Grand Final than if they hadn't rested at all. The week off helps, but not that much.
Based on the very recent history, the week 1 wins are likely to put the teams from Sydney's South and East in a better position in the NRL than Wigan and Warrington are in the Super League.
One thing is for sure, when it comes to the play offs, things aren't as predictable as you might think in Rugby League and the current system - that is under much criticism from fans - enhances that unpredictability. The top teams that earn a rest are still more likely to come out on top, but being the best in the regular season doesn't add that much weight to your play off winning chances - that's a story for another day in itself though. For now, enjoy some exciting and intense knock out Rugby League with the best teams, rested or with momentum, going head-to-head throughout. It should be good!
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