Monday 29 April 2013

Farrell vs. Hock - How has the deal worked out?

Possibly the biggest transfer story before the 2013 Super League season was the loan of Gareth Hock from Wigan to Widnes. It broke on the eve of the season in a whirlwind of rumour, speculation and press releases and saw one of the sport's most imposing and controversial characters leave his home town club, the club that stood by him through his difficult times, to go to the previous season's wooden spoon winners.

I won't be going into the reasons for the move (I don't know anything more than innuendo and suggestion about what pushed this on), but the move did cause concern for me as a Wigan fan. There we were, having already lost four seasoned champions, we got the news that a player who on his day is as dominant a player as there is, an international courted by NRL clubs, would be leaving the club...on loan...to Widnes. Crazy! Could we compete with a squad packed with inexperience and a new half back combination after losing another star player? Would the left edge provide much attacking threat with an aging Pat Richards outside a new combination between stand off, 2nd row and centre? What would Wigan do?

The answer may already have been given away with the squad number announcement giving Liam Farrell Hock's #12 jersey before he had even left the club. Farrell, the Ginger Pearl, made his Wigan first grade debut in 2010 and went on to play in winning Grand Final and Challenge Cup final 17s (something Gareth Hock has never done). Outside of those victories, Faz is possibly best remembered for his last gasp game winning try in the 2011 Good Friday derby against St Helens. A record of 30 tries in 81 appearances for Wigan up to the end of the 2012 season helped get him a call up to the England Elite Training Squad, but he's yet to make his senior international debut.

On the flip side, what would this do for Widnes. Their return to Super League in 2012 saw them finish bottom, though positive signs were seen towards the end of the season and they ended up only bottom on points difference. Kevin Brown was seen as a marquee signing for the new campaign and getting his brother-in-law Hock on board gave them a top tier player. A player who made his Wigan first team debut in 2003 and made 191 appearances, scoring 48 tries, over a ten season period that saw significant time missed first due to injury and then due to suspension over recreational drug use. A player who has earned Super League young player of the year 2003 and Dream Team 2012 individual accolades as well as representative honours for both Great Britain and England.

Well, at this mid-way point of the 2013 season, I thought it would be interesting to see how the deal has worked out for both teams and both players by having a look at the stats the players have put up and the results in the games they've played.

Faz and Wigan
After 13 games, having played all teams once, Wigan sit 1st in the table. Farrell has played in all 13 games, playing almost every minute of the Super League season, and the team have a record of 10-2-1. Here is a breakdown of his stats in those games:



As a Wigan fan, I've seen 9 of Farrell's performances live and caught extended highlights of the other games he has played in, so I've seen plenty of what he has done beyond just the numbers. What has stood out is his work rate and quality in defense. The numbers are impressive themselves - leading the team in tackles and marker tackles, as well as barely missing a tackle - and watching him you get the impression that he reads the attack very well and can also scramble in broken play to prevent the opponent scoring. In attack his relationship with Blake Green rivals that of Finch and Hoffman from a couple of years back. They seem to read each other far better than the defenders can keep up with them. Their link up on tries against Warrington and at Huddersfield exemplify their relationship and it has become a key threat in Wigan's attack.

Whilst Farrell's performances have been consistently top notch and have put him in the Man of Steel reckoning, the thing that really stands out for me is his performances in games against better teams where Wigan haven't gone as well. He was arguably Wigan's best player in all three of the games they haven't won - Warrington at home and Huddersfield and Leeds away. In these games he has totaled 3 tries, 2 try assists, 12 tackle busts and 4 clean breaks. He made 117 tackles and missed 0. He did as much as anyone in those games and was one of the few creative influences in the team at Huddersfield that lacked Sam Tomkins' attacking flair. Big performances in attack and defense were also seen in big games against rivals St Helens and rejuvenated Bradford.

Gaz and Widnes
Widnes' round 4 game with Leeds was rescheduled for Leeds to play the World Club Challenge, so their season is 12 games old. Hock carried an injury into the season so made his bow in round 2 against St Helens. He has played in 8 of 11th placed Widnes' 12 games - a red card against Bradford accounting for him missing the trip to Catalan in round 7 and the loan deal preventing him playing Wigan. The record in games Hock has played is 3-1-4. Here's the breakdown for Hock:


I haven't seen a much of Hock's performances. The live Sky games he has played in have shown me he still has aspects of the best and the worst in him. His offload game can be a gamble and it doesn't come off all the time. His offload numbers are high, but so are the errors. His penalty numbers aren't great and watching him you see that he still plays far too close to that line between aggression and excess, crossing that line with a verbal attack on the officials in a game against Bradford that his teammates did a great job to salvage a draw from. In the Sky game against Hull FC he was massive and saw plenty of the ball, but also showed his flaws giving away penalties, including the less forgivable sin of doing so whilst in possession. His biggest performance may well be the Warrington Easter derby fixture - he contributed in attack with 85 metres and 6 offloads, with no errors, and balanced that with his highest tackle count of 27 and greater than usual effort shown with 5 marker tackles.

The problem seems to be a lack of consistency with Hock, which stands out more in a poorer team where there is less around you to make up for poor defensive efforts and lost ball. A crucial knock on over the line against Wakefield could have changed that game, and he was a non-factor in a big defeat at Huddersfield as well as a sizable win over Salford. He has played in 75% of Widnes wins and only 57% of their defeats, so in that regard he has had a positive impact - their record without him is 1-1-3 (I've counted him as both playing and not playing in the Bradford game). In 2 of the 3 wins Hock has definitely contributed heavily to the team success.

Comparisons and conclusions
The following shows how the two compare against the teams they've both faced up to. They both play left-side so in general they'll have gone up against the same blokes in these games:


This is an overall comparison of their per game averages:


People can draw their own conclusions from the figures, but when considering the numbers it would be remiss not to note that Farrell is playing in a better team with better players around him.

The quality and structure of the teams' attacking play does require different things from these two players. Farrell often hits decent ball when he is one of a number of potential recipients after his team have been put on the front foot. This has given him more carries and metres than Hock despite a similar average gain, and helps him to make more breaks. Hock needs to make things happen on his own more, in part because of the team he is in and in part because his mind thinks he has to, which means he makes significantly more offloads - and on the flip side, more errors too as these are lower percentage plays than Wigan run. Both have shown similar capability to set up tries for their team mates, but Farrell's 10 tries on the season is a great return for a second row. Another area where he is vastly outperforming Hock is in tackle busts, which may come as a surprise when you consider the relative size and physicality of the two players, but Farrell is hitting opponents often with great body position and speed to prevent himself getting fully wrapped up, and he looks to then break free more than get the ball out like Hock. A key stat that isn't featured in those Opta share on the Super League website (my source) is fast play of the balls. From observation alone I would guess Farrell outperforms Hock in this category - when he doesn't break free he likes to get out of a tackle quickly, whereas Hock might have more men tackling him in the first place and sometimes likes a little shove action when he is getting up to play the ball.

In defence, Wigan concede the fewest points per game as a team where as Widnes are one of the worst. Farrell is a big part in Wigan's success - he didn't miss a tackle until round 9 and has made the most tackles the team, also leading in marker tackles, showing his work ethic and fitness must be very good. Hock on the other hand does far less work in defence and is three times as likely to miss a tackle than Farrell is. Both have been fairly guilty of giving penalties away, but in relative terms Hock is much the worse offender. In terms of penalties per appearance he is slightly worse, but you have to consider with less carries and less tackles, he has been far less involved in play than Farrell has for the penalties that have been given away - and Hock has seen a red card for his poor discipline for mouthing off at the referee in Widnes' home game to Bradford.

In summary, Wigan are showing no real ill effects following the exit of several key experienced players before this season and it's arguable that in one of those positions Farrell has upped the play at left second row from what fans saw a season ago. Widnes are far more competitive in the first half of 2013 than the first half of 2012 and despite a couple of punishing scorelines they've shown they have an outside shot at 8th position, with Hock being a big part of that, involved in three of the four wins.

The deal has worked out well all round so far. Wigan haven't sufferred from the negative parts of Hock's game, but benefited from the best he can offer as he performed highly to help Widnes knock off Wigan's title rivals Warrington. Widnes have had a world class player to get them up the table from the wooden spoon position of a year ago and attract a bit more media attention along the way. Both players are likely to be in Steve McNamara's World Cup squad. Hock has secured a move to compete in the best club competition in the world in 2014 with the NRL Parramatta Eels and Farrell has seen himself secure a new long term deal at Wigan amidst talk of being a potential Cherry and White captain in years to come.