Tuesday 24 September 2013

Man of Steel 2013 - Runners and Riders

Super League's awards season is in full swing and the short list has been named for the Man of Steel and Young Player of the Year awards.

Captain of League Leaders Huddersfield, Danny Brough, could add to his Albert Goldthorpe medal. He is up against the Challenge Cup lifting Sean O'Loughlin and Leeds stalwart Jamie Peacock.

Dream Team debutant Ben Crooks, London's flying winger Kieran Dixon and French sensation Morgan Escare are the young players up for the award.

I thought I would have a look at the production provided by these players and the impact they have had on their teams, before giving my opinions on who should win the awards.

Numbers
First we'll start with some overview numbers using the Opta stats available on the Super League website, then I'll look at the players individually.



Man of Steel
The three players up for the award play in different positions and fulfil different roles for their teams, so direct comparisons are difficult. What I'm going to do is compare the players to the average for the players in their positions for all games by the top four sides this season. This will give some indication of how they stack up against the best, although of course they are all a part of that 'best' group already.


Danny Brough
We'll start with the man I expect to win the award and the man I think deserves it based on this season in isolation, which is how this award should be given.

The Goldthorpe Medal win, based on game ratings from 'League Express' match reviewers, shows how consistently influential Brough has been on his team this year, revelling in the extra responsibility after Kevin Brown moved on.

He topped the charts in goals kicked and points scored in a successful Giants regular season campaign. He had a good kicking percentage too, 84% being better that the top 4 average. He was better than the average performance by starting stand offs in the top 4 sides in other categories too.



His defensive play maybe hasn't been his strongest suit and he dips below the standards set by his opposite numbers in this regard, but not embarrassingly so. He sits around the averages in most other relevant categories too. The impressive ones for me are the the offloads, try assists and attacking kicks. These numbers show his creativity and importance in attack. With try assists he leads the way amongst the players at the top teams.

His ability to kick a 40-20 is pretty impressive too, almost one every four games. Its a signal of his kicking game which is dangerous in a variety of ways, from subtle grubbers against the grain near the line to huge spiralling bombs that are almost impossible for defenders to deal with.

He only missed two regular season games, both losses to Bradford Bulls, giving the team a brilliant 84% win ratio with him in the side, the best of the players up for the award. The 0% win ratio with him missing can't be read into too deeply as its such a small sample and the whole team missed one of those games, but when his involvement has been restricted the result has been more likely to be negative, especially when he has been forced to take tackles and not be allowed to link up with Luke Robinson like Wigan did in Week 1 of the play offs, but Hull FC failed to do the week after.

Jamie Peacock
Man of Steel winner a decade ago, and his standards have never dropped. Despite being 35 years of age and overcoming a few serious injuries in the last two or three years, Peacock was the leading metre maker of all players during the regular season.

He was named in the Dream Team for an amazing ninth time and it was fully deserved. There is no sentimentality in this player being on the short list and even a doubter like me is starting to wonder if it isn't so crazy an idea to see if he wants to end his international retirement for the World Cup.



His work rate for a player at his stage of career is quite frankly incredible. One of my eternal frustrations is minutes played stats are so hard to come by, but I suspect he must play longer than the average prop given how many more tackles and carries he makes than his other top 4 counterparts. Its hardly surprising that he misses a few more tackles than other props considered, but then his success rate is on a level with the big blokes from the other top 4 clubs. Another unsurprising figure is his penalties being higher - the more action you involve yourself in, the more likely an indiscretion is to occur.

Props aren't relied on to score tries, but he is above the average here. Other than total metres made per game, the most impressive attacking stat is offloads, being nearly three times more likely to make a successful offload in a game than his top 4 counterparts.

A very impressive 76% win ratio when he is in the Leeds team is complemented with only a 25% win ratio for the four games he missed (although this is a relatively small sample size). The thing that stands out to me regarding his importance to the team is that Leeds always appear to get him back on the field when they need to step things up and win back momentum in a game. He truly is a leader by example and an eternal Super League Man of Steel for a career worth of brilliance. He would be a worthy winner of the award this season, although I think Brough would be worthier.

Sean O'Loughlin
This player for me demonstrates everything great about Rugby League. A player that I feel is genuine world class. Another leader by example and a real player's player. I can't say enough good things about Lockers.

He has already lifted the Challenge Cup this season, over coming injury to get out at Wembley and lead his team to victory, and I'm not sure you would want to bet against him doing the same again at Old Trafford.



There has been a change in the loose forward position in the recent past and many teams are putting a prop forward in that spot in the starting line up. Certainly the ball handling, creative likes of Andy Farrell, Paul Sculthorpe and Jason Smith that were the main stay of the first decade of Super League are a dying breed. Sean O'Loughlin is of this lineage, with him being nearly four times more likely to assist on a try than other top 4 starting 13s and he puts in more attacking kicks in than the average loose forward. His offloading ability is further testament to this and the late offload to set up a try against Warrington in Round 2 comes to mind here. He can draw in defenders then pass at the line better than any other forward in the competition, creating space for his backs and being a constant threat for opponents to worry about.

His defensive stats are pretty even across the board with his counterparts playing at the back of the pack, but it is attitude that sets Lockers apart. The tough carries he'll take early in the tackle count coming away from his own line make up a good amount of the 5 extra carries and 20 extra metres he makes on his other top 4 loose forwards. He makes a few more errors and gives away a few more penalties than most, but I forgive him this for the constant effort and desire he shows for Wigan's cause.

Possibly one of the reasons he has been short listed for the award this year is the impact his absence has had on the team. When he got injured after Magic Weekend, Wigan continued their good run for a few weeks, but when they started to lose he looked to be missed significantly. They were top in May and having just beaten Leeds they looked formidable, with retaining their League Leaders Shield being almost a formality. Then the wheels fell off and they only time they were really put back on before the play off win at Huddersfield were the cup games that O'Loughlin's fitness seemed to be managed around. Wigan won 83% of the 15 regular season games Lockers played, but only 42% of the 12 games he missed - significant numbers in this case.

That is part of the issue on his nomination for me - he hasn't really played enough games this year or stood out any more than he has in all his years as Wigan's captain to deserve this award more than the other two contenders on 2013's play alone, which as I've said is how this award should be given in my opinion. My favourite player he may be, but Man of Steel 2013 I don't think so, and I say this with regret as it may be the only time he is short listed, when he should be every year in my eyes.

In fact, I think another Wigan player should have been on the three man short list and for me would be a more than worthy winner this season - Josh Charnley. He led the league in tries and scored some incredible efforts along the way. Who can forget his length of the field pick up and go on Good Friday against Saints, his instinctive hat-trick off Widnes errors in the cup quarter final, as well as a couple of great finishes in the play off win at Huddersfield.



You look at the numbers with Charnley and its hard not to be impressed. He has already become the top try scorer ever in a summer season this year and led the league in this category. He smashes the averages set by the rest of the wingers at top 4 clubs in most categories in attack and defence. As well as the tries talked about above, an overriding memory from the 2013 season will be the moment that really lit up a damp cup final when he chased down Jamie Shaul to prevent what looked a certain try.

Charnley is very unfortunate in my eyes not to make the short list this year. If he had won it, surely no-one would argue it. But, he isn't in the running and my winner from those that are would be Brough.

Young Player of the Year
These players are a bit more comparable than the Man of Steel candidates, all being backs so all expected to demonstrate a more similar skill set than you would expect between a half and a front rower. I'm still going to use the same basis of comparison however. Comparing these young stars to the players in their positions in the top 4 sides will demonstrate just how impressive they are. They can stand up with their heads held high alongside the very best in the league.

Ben Crooks
As the son of a Hull FC legend of days past, there were probably high expectations of Ben, who made his debut in 2012 but has really established himself in the first team in 2013. So much so he was nominated to the Super League Dream Team.



His better than a try a game record is probably the stand out figure, but his overall attacking threat is impressive with his ability to bust tackles, make metres and run lines that break the line all being ahead of his peers at the higher ranked clubs.

He was rushed back from injury for the biggest match of his young career at Wembley and that didn't go well, but that was one of few negatives on a hugely promising season for the young player. His team were similarly successful with or without him, so its hard to suggest he was a key piece in the Hull side, but the importance placed on his injury and race for fitness for Wembley highlights his growing significance to the side. I suspected it was just hype because of who he is, but having seen more of him as the season went on, I think this kid is special in his own right. His Dream Team nomination may give him the edge in this award too.

Kieran Dixon
The only player nominated in either award whose team didn't make the play offs, but Dixon's electric speed and footwork have seen him linked with higher things and brought him England Knights recognition already in his short career.



Lets call it as it is, his numbers are impressive in attack but pretty poor in defence. He's willing to put in the work when his team has the ball and is rewarded with good metres and plenty of tackle busts. His attacking numbers are more impressive when you consider he was playing in a team that finished second bottom and sat at this low ranking for a number of key attacking stats, such as tries, busts, breaks and metres.

Another factor that supports his nomination is that London didn't win one of the regular season games he missed. They didn't win many games with him playing either, but clearly he has a positive impact on his side with what he can do with ball in hand. But I can't get away from those defensive and error numbers. He is way off the best in the league and trails his other nominees in these areas too. For this reason I don't think he would be the man I would pick for this award.

Morgan Escare
He is the only true rookie in the list, having not appeared in the Super League before 2013. He brought a lot of excitement to a Catalan team that I watched lose the plot in the full back position when Brent Webb first went down injured early in the season. His willingness to try things and play what he sees rather than what he would be instructed to do stands him out and he is a player I would pay to see, so much so that I was especially disappointed when Brent Webb was recalled when I saw them play at Bradford late in the season.



For such an inexperienced player coming into the team at a very prominent position how the game is being played currently in Super League, he compares very favourably with the average top 4 full back. His try scoring rate is the same as Dixon, but it stands him well ahead of the average full back. His ability to make metres and find space is top class.

His defending numbers are a touch down on the top 4's players, but not significantly so, and his relatively low error rate is very commendable for a young player in a pressure position.

The Dragons have actually performed better without him in the side in terms of results and Webb does show similarly impressive statistics in the games he played in, but then Webb is a seasoned veteran with a very impressive track record of domestic and international performance behind him.

Of the players short listed, Escare would be the one that I would give the award to. Performances, flair and excitement all stack up against the best in the league and of the three, he is the one I enjoyed the most in 2013.

There you have it, Charnley and Escare would have been my Man of Steel and Young Player in 2013. With Charnley inexplicably missing the cut, on the balance of this year in isolation and to this point in time, I would go with Brough, although if Peacock is given the honour then I would be fine with that too.

Who would you pick and who do you think has unluckily missed out in either category? And does anyone know the age criteria for young player!?