Super League 2013 Review

Its now October. We should be excited in anticipation of the World Cup (go and buy tickets!), but first have a look over what has come to pass with my club by club review of the 2013 Super League season.

This is a follow up to my season preview so we'll see how my predictions turned out, apologies for this small amount of self-indulgence!

I'll run through the clubs in order of the final league placings.

Huddersfield Giants
Final position: 1st
Play offs: qualifying semi-final (week 3)
Cup: 1/4 final

My prediction: 8th

The Giants really messed up my whole top 8 by being at the top end of the standings rather than squeaking in as I expected. Great credit to them for this season. Some well deserved silverware.

I always thought they would be good enough to make the play offs and beat some top teams along the way, I just didn't think they could be so consistently good. Paul Anderson has done a great job in actually getting his team tactically prepared to play winning rugby league football all season. They had their slump earlier in the season and for a shorter period than in previous years. Players who've been there a while really stepped up from being good quality to class acts and leadership examples. I wrote about him more last month - Danny Brough has been outstanding, sweeping the end of season awards, deservedly so. Brett Ferres and Leroy Cudjoe have come of age. The forwards have been constant in their efforts and quality.

Obviously finishing top of the regular season they were well ranked in all the key statistical categories. They also had five players named in the Dream Team.

In the end they fell short to Warrington in the play off semi-final, a team they couldn't get the better of all season and also went out of the cup to, but you have to think this will be regarded as a great season for Fartown and maybe evidence that they've turned a corner.

Warrington Wolves
Final position: 2nd
Play offs: runners up
Cup: semi-final

My prediction: 1st & GF winners

Its always their year, so the song sung by rivals goes, and this was a bit of the same for Warrington. In the end they lost it at Old Trafford after a couple of notable in game injuries added to a forceful and intense second half Wigan performance.

The final position demonstrated a great consistency all season and they had particularly outstanding play out of dummy half with Micky Higham having himself possibly his best ever season. Joel Monaghan continued his impressive record of better than a try every game in his Wire career and was for me a surprise omission from the Dream Team.

At the start of the season I suggested the age of the Warrington squad could either hold them back or serve as a motivation with many moving on. I also discussed how younger players might start showing some more development. Well, the older players mainly did the job for Warrington again this year but it wasn't quite enough. Adrian Morley, Gareth Carvell and Brett Hodgson out of the veteran group will be leaving. Ben Currie was the only young player to continue to make an impact. Others had a small number of games for the Wire, with Gareth O'Brien and Brad Dwyer having more game time out on loan. A transition in the squad will probably be ongoing for a few years at this rate of growth for the younger players.

I think Warrington have to ultimately be disappointed with a trophy free season. A sad way for Morley, so instrumental in turning around the attitude of the club, to depart.

Leeds Rhinos
Final position: 3rd
Play offs: qualifying semi-final (week 3)
Cup: 5th round

My prediction: 2nd & Cup win

Leeds didn't do what Leeds do this year. They didn't make a final and they didn't run through teams in the play offs. Wigan took care of that the week before Old Trafford with their own Leeds-like run through the teams that finished the regular season ahead of them. Huddersfield beat them in the cup in one of the most enjoyable games this season.

Their talented young outside backs did provide a few highlight reel moments this season, Joel Moon particularly showing he belongs at a top team. However, their real stand out player was Jamie Peacock - an ageless talisman who would have been a worthy man of steel winner. He had more metres than any other player and seemed to have as much energy as anyone else too.

Leeds did suffer a number of injuries along the way but despite this they managed their highest finish since 2009. In fact, the injuries helped them develop some younger payers, notably Liam Sutcliffe and Brad Singleton both playing over a dozen games and looking up to the grade. The younger players again added something for Leeds and I think were possibly a factor in them finishing higher up the table as the squad depth and competition for places is as good as it has been for a number of years now, despite them in the end not matching the GF success seen in recent years.

Yes, an unsuccessful season for Leeds in trophy terms, but I think it should be seen as a good season for squad progression.

Wigan Warriors
Final position: 4th
Play offs: Winners
Cup: Winners

My prediction: 3rd & appearing in one of the finals

What a year! First team to do the double since close rivals St Helens in 2006 and they started the year written off by many due to the experience and talent they had lost, particularly in the halves. The best way to answer that doubt was not just by winning the trophies but also seeing Matty Smith get the Lance Todd and Blake Green the Harry Sunderland.

Josh Charnley was possibly the stand out player with the best ever summer season tally of tries with some absolute crackers along the way - and lets not forget that try saving effort in the Cup final, one of the most exciting plays all season. Sean O'Loughlin and Sam Tomkins proved vital to success with Wigan not losing a game they both played in all year.

Through to June they were by and large tearing opponents apart and racking up the tries with ease, putting the team in a commanding position to take the league leaders shield at the time. Then the team started to juggle about - resting players and key injuries meant league form was sketchy and questions were rightly being raised about the coach and squad's ability to beat top teams in big games. Wigan's attack faltered and others worked out the outside shift. Cup form carried on earlier league form and then torrid weather at Wembley brought out the old ruthless winning style the 2010-2011 Wigan sides showed. This was picked up again in the play offs with Wigan playing true play off rugby and, in the end, rather convincingly knocking aside all those teams that jumped ahead of them in the regular season run down.

How Wigan will cope with Tomkins' departure is a question for next year, but there is time to celebrate what the side did this year first. What a year!

St Helens
Final position: 5th
Play offs: preliminary semi-final (week 2)
Cup: 4th round

My prediction: 4th & possible final

The cliche is a game of two halves, but this was a season of two halves for St Helens, and it went the opposite way to what we're used to seeing from coach Nathan Brown's Giants teams in recent seasons. Saints won only 7 of the first 17 games and there was legitimate concern over whether they would make the play offs. However, they closed the season with 8 wins from 10 and entered the play offs as dark horse candidates, a late one-pointer from Danny McGuire seeing them lose to Leeds in week 2.

All the top teams have had key injuries to contend with this year, its just Saints didn't deal with them as well as the teams that finished above them. They lost 3 of a 9 game mid-season stretch without both James Roby and Jonny Lomax available to play, including losses to four teams that ended the season below them (London and Widnes amongst these). Clearly Roby is still key to what sort of season Saints have, which as I noted pre-season is a dangerous place to be.

The other thing we learned about Saints is they have to find some half backs. They've signed Luke Walsh from the Penrith Panthers for 2014, which should help things, but at times this season they didn't even have one recognised half playing so it only in part solves the problems.

The Club of the Year award at the Man of Steel night suggests Saints have done some things right this year, I'm not sure what though. Despite some decent wins and good seasons for a few players like Super League debutant Alex Walmsley and now full-back Jonny Lomax, this was a poor season for the red-vee and will not live long in the memory of their fans.

Hull FC
Final position: 6th
Play offs: preliminary semi-final (week 2)
Cup: runners up

My prediction: 5th & deep play off run

I predicted an outside chance of  play off run, but what we actually saw was a cup run - the less said about the week 2 play off exit the better for black and white fans I'm sure!

The cup run showed the potential the team had when they had their best team out all together. The inconsistency in the league showed that this didn't happen often enough. As well as injury disruption, a big problem for FC was in attack. They were in the bottom half of the league in tries, points scored and breaks.

Despite the season ending in a drubbing, with a poor showing at Wembley also a headline feature, there was still a lot to be excited about at Hull. Danny Houghton had an outstanding year at hooker, most notably in defence as he led the league in tackles and marker tackles. Even more exciting was the emergence of some young backs. Super League Young Player of the Year Ben Crooks won a regular starting spot over off-season signing Joe Arundel and carried that through to be top try scorer. Tom Lineham also emerged with great credit in his debut first team season, making his way into the Super League Dream Team. Jacob Miller came over from NRL's Wests Tigers to show some flashes of skill and creativity. Then, at the back end of the season, the attacking talents of Jamie Shaul were unleashed from the full back position with his blistering pace and ability to break out of tackles suggesting a long term answer at that position.

Overall not the season the Hull board would have hoped for saw Peter Gentle lose his job, but I don't think it was all bad for FC. They remain behind the top 5 clubs a little way but showed signs they could close the gap.

Catalan Dragons
Final position: 7th
Play offs:
Cup: 1/4 final

My prediction: 6th

I expected the French side to drop a bit this year and they have - lets face it, you lose a coach with the calibre to go on and win an NRL title and you're likely to drop off a little.

The games I saw them play this season were mostly scrappy affairs. I thought the side took another dip in the flair and excitement stakes again this season, they aren't as fun to watch as they once were. This is brought to bare by the stats that show they were the third lowest try scorers in the regular season, despite being par for their 7th place finish in other key attacking numbers like carries, metres and clean breaks.

Key man from 2012 Scott Dureau missed a lot of play. You could point to that as a contributor to their inconsistency, but then they only won 2 of 8 games he featured in, so maybe not. Playing forwards (especially the super-veteran Steve Menzies) in the centres also possibly slowed them down a bit and this is a position they lack quality depth for sure.

One area they don't lack is full back. Big name signing Brent Webb was impressive when available, but missed a lot of the season through injury. That however opened the door for the real bright spark of this Catalan season - Morgan Escare. Although I've said a lot of what I saw from les Dracs was scrappy, this kid was totally exhilarating. Young player nominee and he would have got my vote if I had one. Had a great season, highlighted in more detail in my Man of Steel blog.

They didn't manage their usual one home play off game so fell at the first post-season hurdle, bringing the curtain down on one of the great rugby league careers with Menzies finally hanging the headgear up. It isn't hard to realise what the problem was for Catalan in 2013 though - they won 79% of their league games against the teams that finished below them, but only 25% against the teams that finished above them - they just weren't good enough when they came up against the top teams.

Hull Kingston Rovers
Final position: 8th
Play offs:
Cup: 5th round

My prediction: 7th

Rovers were expected to better their sub-par 2012 season, and they just about did that. They picked up this years honour of being the 'team that didn't really deserve to be in the play offs', being as they finished in the bottom half of the table, lost more than they won and conceded a lot more than they scored. Of course, it isn't their fault we've played in a top 8 system that rewards a relatively poor team with a post-season spot, but they were dumped out in rather flat fashion at St Helens in comfortably the worst game of week 1 in the play offs.

In that game, the Robins missed 30 tackles compared to only 8  by the Saints. That sort of highlights what was wrong with Rovers this year - defence. They conceded 760 points, way more than any other play off team, and were the 2nd worst team for missing tackles all season in absolute and percentage terms. They averaged 7.5 missed tackles more than their opponent in the games they played. You don't win many games of rugby league if you defend like that.

Discipline was also an issue. They conceded more penalties than any other side and this also saw nine sin-bins and one red card.

A positive would have been the stand out seasons had by Cory Paterson and Micky Paea, if the two players weren't leaving the club now, the latter to head to city rivals Hull FC. Greg Eden will have to be the happy stand out for Robins fans - a star performer who doesn't appear to be on his way out. He had 300m in one game at Catalan, which is the best single game gain by any player this season.

As well as maybe holding on to a few players, its clear what the Robins will take away from this season - must learn how to tackle!

Bradford Bulls
Final position: 9th
Cup: 5th round

My prediction: 10th

We got what I expected from Bradford by and large. Most things were pretty average or just below that mark.

The two areas of issue on the field for Bradford were the missed tackles, that dogged them almost as bad as it did Hull KR, and a pretty poor average yards per carry (2nd worst behind Salford).

Only 3 defeats in the first 11 matches meant Bradford actually started the season very strongly and looked well in contention for a play off place mid-way through the season. However, big mid-season losses in a difficult stretch where they played the top 4 in a five week run seemed to knock their confidence and momentum somewhat. After a season worst beating at Magic Weekend by Huddersfield, Bradford went on to end the season with only 3 wins in the last 11 matches. They were competitive as only 1 of the 8 defeats in the run in was by more than two converted try margin (14 points against Warrington in Round 20), but that was another problem I saw - the team lacked that winning experience to know how to get a win in tight games. With that, the play off ambition was ended.

Bradford fans point to the performances of Nick Scruton and Manase Manuokafoa as bright points, but to be honest these players weren't much above average in reality. Brett Kearney's start to the season was really good, but he became less consistent in the second half of the season. Matty Blythe was another player who had a strong season. Bradford overall were average though and more worryingly the late season downturn on the field was added to by further financial worries off the field, with problems in paying players making headlines. Now the club will see if things can improve under their third set of owners in 18 months or so.

Widnes Vikings
Final position: 10th
Cup: 1/4 final

My prediction: 9th

Widnes have shown development. Hopefully its sustainable and they can become more competitive in 2014.

The headline recruits to me were a bit hot and cold, in every way for Gareth Hock who in my opinion dropped down to Widnes' level more than he lifted them to the level he is capable of. I've liked the performances of a couple of their younger players and Adam Lawton and Jack Owens look like really good prospects.

A player who impressed me every time I saw Widnes, even in defeat, was Joe Mellor who had a break through year and earned his new contract, but the star man for Widnes was really their half-back turned full-back Rhys Hanbury. This has been the modern way for full-backs and Hanbury looked great in an average side. He made more clean breaks than any other player. He's another who has earned his new deal, but really wouldn't have been out of place at a higher placed club. Its good for Widnes they kept hold of him.

Three red cards indicated discipline might have been an issue, but worse for me was how many tries they seemed to concede without getting hands on opponents. They allowed 216 clean breaks, which is second worst in the league and more than any team produced according to the Super League website stats provided by Opta.

I like Denis Betts and I think 2013 has to be seen as a step forward for Widnes and a small thumbs up to the outgoing licensing system.

Wakefield Wildcats
Final position: 11th
Cup: 5th round

My prediction: 11th

Wakefield are the first team I've got spot on so far. I don't think anything went particularly wrong for them to finish 11th, they just didn't get the same winning run at any point that pushed them to the play offs in 2012 (with a little help from Bradford's point deduction). Their best winning run was four games but they never surprised any of the big teams this year and the lack of those surprise wins left them out of the play offs.

That has also left them with a financial cloud hanging over them after some open and honest revelations from the board about the predicament they are in and the sale of players being a result.

One of the players to be sold looks likely to be Ben Cockayne, who had another very strong year, only five players in Super League equalled or bettered his 17 100+ metre games this season, although the tries did dry up in the second half of the campaign.

Danny Kirmond earned himself heaps of praise and this resulted in a Dream Team place, the only player outside the top 6 to get this recognition. In my opinion he nicked a place from Liam Farrell owing to a lot of positive chatter during the second half of the season, but Kirmond is a leader of some presence and quality. His positive press swelled from people taking notice of 9 tries in a 6 games period in the start of the second half to the season, but for me Kirmond's main virtue is his bravery and willingness to work hard in defence for his team.

Paul Aiton and Kyle Amor are others that deserve credit, but really Wakefield didn't have more than an average year in 2013 after a good on in 2012 and they may fear a bad one in 2014 with all the outgoings.

Castleford Tigers
Final position: 12th
Cup: 4th round

My prediction: 12th

Another team I got spot on, although they would have fared worse if they hadn't changed coach mid-season. 6 of their 9 league wins came after Daryl Powell was appointed coach.

In my opinion Rangi Chase relied too much on himself when they had the ball - he carried the ball more than anyone else in the league and counted for a massive 13% of all Castleford's carries during the season. He was second in the league in tackle busts and did assist on nearly a quarter of their tries, but on the flip side he missed on around a quarter of his tackle attempts and was second in the league in errors made.

The young hookers performed pretty well for Cas and Daryl Clark is still a player of immense potential, but he needs to take the game more - he only averaged around 5 runs from dummy half per game, which is pretty low compared to hookers at the top clubs, including those who split time like he does. He should take a more active involvement in games and maybe he will with Chase leaving for Salford, assuming Clark stays around.

Justin Carney was the good, the bad and the ugly for Cas this year. Discipline wasn't his strong suit, but barrelling opponents out of the way was. 21 tries and averaging 10 metres a carry over the season are impressive figures.

For me, Cas need more depth in the squad and more power in the pack to be more competitive. They just weren't good enough to regularly compete in 2013.

London Broncos
Final position: 13th
Cup: Semi-final

My prediction: 14th

London would have finished bottom if Salford didn't use an extra defender late in their game against Castleford that cost them those two points.

Their 70-0 Cup semi-final drubbing was one of the low points of the whole season for the game as it starts to wake up to their just not being enough talent in the country to sustain so many top tier teams. The debate about the value to their Super League existence and fears about this not continuing in 2014 have also brought negative attention to the capital's premier club, but I've written plenty on this elsewhere this year.

On field it was really the defence that embarrassed them. Attack wasn't good either, but they just allowed so many busts and breaks that the metres racked up and the spent much of the season running the wrong way.

Kieran Dixon did manage to have himself an impressive season and I spoke about him more last month when assessing his Young Player of the Year nomination. He's an exciting player who represents some of the development and potential that is emerging in London and the South East.

I'm really unsure about what is next for London. With promotion and relegation returning and most of their better players leaving, they can't keep having bad seasons like this but don't see anything but bad seasons like this sadly.

Salford City Reds
Final position: 14th
Cup: 5th round

My prediction: 13th

2013 was a dead year for Salford on the pitch. If was off the pitch where the headlines were made with the ownership change, the bids for high profile players and the announcement of a large player turnover for 2014.

Marc Sneyd and Theo Fages showed some good stuff this year and the back rowers Mat Ashurst and Andrew Dixon had solid seasons partnering each other in almost every game.

I'm not sure I have much else to say about Salford though, if things go to plan for them this season shouldn't really matter in the long run.

Summing up
I take no great pleasure in having picked the 8 play off teams in advance of the season - maybe I would have if I put money on it though! I would also say that on the whole 2013 has been a pretty disappointing season for Super League in many ways.

The sport has come in for a knocking. Bradford and Wakefield seem not to have shaken their financial issues. More column inches were dedicated to a player who would be leaving than about any good going on. The Cup final was largely seen as a poor effort and a bad advert for the game. Even the balls have come in for lots of negative attention. There have been some disappointing one sided affairs (including high profile games) and the gap between the bottom and top clubs doesn't appear to be getting any smaller.

I feel as if the level of play has been down this year on previous years over the course of the piece. Defences particularly seemed to dip from the last few seasons, although some would see that as a positive as they like seeing lots of tries. I personally like a compromise between the two and scoring to be regular but tough to come by. I've seen a lot of soft defences that lacked sufficient intensity this season. As a proxy for defensive intensity I would look at missed tackles, tackle busts and clean breaks. Misses and busts, which will count a lot of the same collisions in each, have both increased by over 14% from 2012. Busts are up nearly 17% from 2010. Breaks are a little less than 2012 (3% down) but still 41% up from 2010 (31% up from 2011 as well) - I'm not sure if they changed the way they recorded this stat before 2012 season because that is a massive difference. Tackle success is half a percent down, which might seem small, but it was pretty consistent in the past few years so this is a big relative drop off. All these numbers do back up my sense of a drop in defensive intensity.

Poor defence, predictable outcomes, losing stars to the NRL, lack of revenues and structural review all cast a shadow over Rugby League in 2013. It hasn't been the greatest season for the sport in this country. However, it's still be better than a season of any other sport in my eyes. 

As a Wigan fan, obviously I'm happy with what has been seen. As an England fan I'm excited for a World Cup where we do have a chance if the bounce of the ball favours us. As a Rugby League lover I'm concerned, but we should still look back on the season with some fondness at all clubs - I've managed to find some high points through my review, I hope you can add to it too.

2013 Challenge Cup Final preview - Wigan Warriors v Hull FC

I'll try to be impartial in this. I have my tickets and obviously I want Wigan to win, but I also hope this will be a great game with a big crowd and big TV audience.

Although lots of people think the RFL wanted a Wigan v Warrington final, I don't expect any less of an enthralling occasion with this match-up between the teams involved in what is argued to be the best ever final in 1985 in front of apparently over 99,000 people at old Wembley! The two Wigan - Warrigton games this year have been great but I think this Wigan v Hull final can be every bit as good as any game we've seen in the northern hemisphere this season.

On that day in 1985 it was only goal kicking that split the teams on the scoreboard, coincidentally just as it was when the two teams met earlier in 2013 at the KC stadium, Wigan coming home with a 28-20 win as the teams shared 8 tries equally but Pat Richards nailing six from six kicks, to Joe Westerman's two goals.

Head to head
Wigan have won 8 in a row against Hull since 2009. That has included a 46-0, a 56-12 and a 48-10. Overall in the Super League years the record is:

That all looks a bit one-sided, but I wouldn't expect a one-sided game at Wembley. We should look at the most recent history to get a better indicator.

Here are the stats from the first meeting between the sides this season, which Wigan won 28-20 at the KC Stadium:


Many of the key categories are close - metres, tackle success, clean breaks are Phil Clarke's Key Performance Indicators. Wigan edged metres and Hull edges the other two KPIs, but the difference in all is marginal - I'm sure if it were on Sky Phil would have had this as a draw.

Stats 
What about the numbers this season? Do they give any clues on what we might see on 24 August?


One thing that should make the game very competitive is the defences on display. Hull are the most prolific tacklers in the Super League this year so should be used to defending when they come up against a Wigan team that tend to have more possession than most, whilst Wigan have the tightest defence for conceding points. We also have the two teams with the fewest missed tackles in the league, so we should get the sort of intensity in collision that we see week in week out Down Under.

Hull's clear problem has been in attack. They've made just above average metres, but only hapless London and Salford have scored fewer points, only those two and Bradford fewer tries, and they haven't been too hot in kicking goals either - though that might change with Danny Tickle fit again if he takes back the goal-kicking duties.

Wigan haven't struggled in attack over the whole - top scorers, most tries, most breaks, second in carries, third in metres. Wigan don't make many offloads, but they play a game that creates space through quick play of the balls and numbers of runners in motion on each play so that they find space and gaps to run through. However, in big games (semi-final aside!) against the top sides away from the DW Stadium Wigan have found scoring harder to come by - 10 points at Huddersfield, 14 points at Leeds, 12 points at Warrington, 16 points at Saints (only reaching 20 points v Leeds at Magic Weekend). If Hull can play like a top side, they can restrict some of Wigan's attacking shape and might be able to stifle the force of the Wigan way like others have. A note of caution though, Sam Tomkins missed three of those away games at top sides.

Hull kick the ball plenty and will look to turn Wigan around and get into their tackling often. Wigan on the other hand make such good metres that you'll see a lot of attacking kicks putting Hull under pressure in their own 20m area. Forty-twenties are something to keep an eye on, both teams have two players with more than one each this season, but on a big Wembley pitch we might not see any unfortunately - what a momentum swinger it would be if one of the outstanding kickers on show delivers.

Key men
Sam Tomkins - Sam is the man at Wigan. I know a lot of people think Sean O'Loughlin is as important or more important to the way the team goes, and I see where they're coming from, but the numbers suggest one thing - Sam in the Man. In Wigan's 2013 Super League campaign he makes the most metres per game and has put on the most tries for his team mates in the Wigan squad. He is second to Josh Charnley in tries scored and clean breaks, but averages slightly more per game than Charnley. Wigan have a win percent of 92.5% in the 20 games (all competitions) Tomkins has played in, but only 33% in the 6 games he has missed and Sam has had a direct hand in scoring or assisting 32% of Wigan's 133 Super League tries. He is the player with the most individual potential to win this match in an attacking system that is designed around the game-breaking ability of his incredible talent.

Sean O'Loughlin - Whilst Sam Tomkins brings the finishing touches to many Wigan plays, you can bet inspirational captain O'Loughlin has had a hand in the scoring set somewhere. Leading by example rather than command, 'Lockers' has proved himself integral to Wigan's play in both attack and defence. Although the numbers aren't as stand out as for Tomkins, Wigan have 86.1 win % when O'Loughlin plays and 62.5 win % when he doesn't play in 2013 (Wigan are 78.8% for the whole season). The stats don't quite bear it out, but anyone who was watching Wigan play without their club captain in home games recently against Castleford and Bradford who then compares the attacking fluidity with the cup quarter- and semi-final when he did play will realise the important role he plays in linking and guiding the attack around the pitch. One key role he fulfils is he sticks his hand up to do hard carries on early tackles in his own half, as well as then being able to play as a pivot when his team reach the opposition half. Defensively too, O'Loughlin is massive for Wigan. In Super League he has a tackle success of nearly 95%, made all the more impressive by his work rate in defence meaning he is second only to Liam Farrell in average tackles and marker tackles per game. The all-around importance of Wigan's leader can't be overstated and he will be key if he is to climb those Wembley steps to lift the trophy as he did in 2011.

Daniel Holdsworth - Sean O'Loughlin was Wigan's man of the match in their semi-final, Daniel Holdsworth got the nod in his team's defeat of in form cup holders Warrington. That in itself should undermine his big game importance. Hull have 60 win % when he plays compared to the team's 59% win-ratio in the league this season, so that suggests he makes only makes a slight difference, but he was in place to help his team to wins against Warrington, rivals Hull KR and Leeds in a brilliant May run for the team. Young Jacob Miller has a lot of potential and Aaron Heremaia never lets his side down, but Holdsworth has the experience, vision and kicking game to lead his team around the park.

Danny Houghton - Houghton is just a machine in attack and defence. Capable of going the full 80 and not letting his standards drop, he can have even greater impact when spelled with Heremaia. He leads Super League in tackles, marker tackles and runs from dummy half and, impressively for someone so involved, he makes few errors and rarely concedes a penalty. He sets the pace for Hull in both attack and defence. His form is such that he might edge his way into the England World Cup reckoning, he really has been playing that well. He doesn’t miss many games so it's impossible to tell what impact it would have on the team if he weren't there, but you have to think it would be noticeable given the standards this player sets. Wigan can't allow him to set off on the back of quick play of the balls as both Catalan and Warrington saw what damage this can do to retreating defence in the past two rounds of the competition.

Obviously these are the only very good players on each team. Shannon McDonnell is having a strong season for Hull and Michael McIlorum will be dangerous out of dummy half in opposition to their counterparts discussed above. Wigan have great experience in the likes of Pat Richards and Harrison Hansen, matched by players like Andy Lynch and Gareth Ellis in FC's squad. Josh Charnley and Darrell Goulding up against Tom Briscoe and Kirk Yeaman should be a great all English match-up. Danny Tickle for Hull and Lee Mossop for Wigan, both confirmed departures from their clubs at the season's end, will want to leave on a high with a cup winners medal too.

Others to watch 
Anthony Gelling - Beyond the headline names, there are a few player I think could make an impact that you might not be expecting to. For me,  Gelling is one such player if he is picked to play left centre. Since getting a run at centre his numbers have improved across the board, particularly in attack. Other than try scoring, he has been a revelation in what many see as his best position, making 121m per game and seeming to win almost every collision he carries the ball into. Sure he is impulsive and a risk taker, who doesn't always concentrate, but he is a different player to what Wigan have elsewhere because of this. In a tight game a bit of variation or a brilliant offload that isn't in the normal structured pattern of Wigan's play could break things right open - Gelling brings that threat.

Scott Taylor - A Hull lad and former Robin, you have to think he'll be up for this if picked. Scott has been building an increasing reputation amongst the Wigan fans and a level of excitement is beginning to grow every time he touches the ball, with goo reason too - he leads all Wigan props in yards per carry this season and despite limited minutes with all but one appearance being off the bench, he has averaged 90 metres per game. His defence has been questioned, even by his coach, but it must be his positioning that was the problem because he is successful in 95% of his tackles. He didn't play against Hull FC the first time around this season, but I think this is an opportunity he wouldn't want to let pass him by. Whether he'll be selected or not, I'm not sure, but he has been going the right way about putting himself in the frame.

Tom Lineham - This is a player who on this season's form could have been named in the key players list. He has overshadowed his more experienced wing partner Tom Briscoe in more ways than one and it was arguably his 90m try than turned the semi-final around and provided Hull the impetus to go on and win. He is Hull's second top try scorer behind his centre partner Ben Crooks, who I could have picked out as well, but the real reason Lineham is singled out here is that he scored a hat-trick in the meeting between these sides at the KC. He has proved to be a threat to this strong Wigan defence.

Liam Watts - Watts is a player I've always liked the look of since he broke through with FC's cross-city rivals, although he doesn't seem to have reached his potential yet for what ever reason. Not many Hull players are making massive individual yards per game, but his 89m per game puts him second amongst the Hull props and he is also third best in tackles per game for FC, complementing this with a 95% tackle success. Watts had a good game against Wigan in April meeting between the sides, with 120 metres (2nd only to fullback McDonnell, and only by 4m) and 28 successful tackles.

I'm not going to make a prediction what with my team playing in the game, so all that's left to say is I hope everyone enjoys the game and as long as Rugby League is the winner then it should be a great occasion.

NOTE: All stats and rankings correct at time of publishing. Most stats adapted from Super League website.

Super League - Attendance vs. Population

Straight up facts based piece here, which has just come out of curiosity really, but may help inform some of my future writing.

I was wondering which Super League clubs do relatively well in attendances in terms of the population of their immediate drawing market. 

The drawing market is defined here by the English district the stadium is placed within as per the Office for National Statistics population statistics. The clear drawback to this analysis is the Catalan Dragons - I've included them in the analysis but I can't say how well their population statistics relate to the English ones, some of which include wider areas than just the town or city the club is based in. Another note before we get going with numbers is that in terms of districts, London is broken down into its smaller parts.

A note on the data, attendance figures are for the 2009-2012 seasons inclusive, other than for Widnes, who have only the 2012 figure to use for that period. Crude figures are taken from the individual season data as given by the excellent resource that is the Rugby League Project. I haven't scoured through them or independently verified them as they seem robust enough at a glance to give a strong indication of the true picture.

Finally, Wakefield and Castleford are both part of the Wakefield district, and Hull FC and Hull KR are both part of the Kingston upon Hull district. Now, it would be too simplistic to chop these districts in half - both teams in these areas don't show the same level of support. To get around this I took the combined attendance then matched the proportion each team was responsible for to the proportion of the total district population - i.e. Hull FC have roughly 60% of the combined average attendance for the Hull teams so I allocated them 60% of the district population.

Below are two tables - one for population, one for attendance. These are followed by a graph illustrating the respective rankings within Super League.






The teams above the line show better attendance than their population would suggest, and below the line vice versa. Warrington and Widnes are where they might be expected, sitting as they do on the dividing line. The Hull teams look in good shape, whilst London, Salford and Huddersfield aren't faring so well. London and Salford deserve particular criticism as they have much larger potential drawing areas than those given in the tables above, being as they are the only Super League clubs in London and Manchester respectively. (I know Salford isn't actually Manchester, but you understand my point I'm sure.)

Now I know this analysis isn't perfect. It doesn't factor attendance as a percentage of capacity, although there are so few capacity crowds attending Super League games that this doesn't influence matters too much - rarely would a crowd have been bigger if the stadiums were bigger. It doesn't account for fans that don't live in the district, of which there will be many (I would fall into this category myself). It assumes everyone in the district is a potential fan of the local team, when there will be some who may already support a rival team or may have no interest in following a sports team at all. It doesn't account for the percentage of a team's attendance is made up by away supporters, although you'd expect the effect of away numbers to even out some what with teams having a stable core of away support going to all away games. It doesn't account for support that can't make it to games for whatever reason. Also, as the charts are based on rankings, rather than proportions, it doesn't give the real gap between attendance and potential audience, but then it doesn't account for substitute goods (other things people could do other than go watch rugby) either. 

Like I say, it isn't perfect, but it is an indication of who gets the best out of their potential market. Some teams are doing better than others, and I would like all teams in real attendance terms to be doing better than they are. This sport deserves more attention and bigger audiences.