Should we be worried about London?

Rugby League in London is a real quandary and quite the contradiction. On the one hand you have great growth in the amateur and junior scene, on the other hand you have a poorly supported Super League franchise that has stumbled over an identity and struggled to find a true home.

I've written here and elsewhere previously about the potential and importance of the London presence in Rugby League, but the top level presence really seems under threat. Is that something we should be worried about?

It seems that we should be with the rumours that are circulating and Featherstone Rovers touting themselves as replacements for the 2014 Super League if the London Broncos are to fall out even before the likely looking relegation they could face at the end of the 2014 season, with the restructure not affording them special dispensation. They haven't found a home for the new season despite having played their last home game of 2013. A number of their current squad have expressed a desire to leave or are already on the way out for 2014 and there is no news on any new recruits. There are concerns about the patient and deep pocketed David Hughes no longer wanting to prop this club up to perform so badly on the field and in the stands.

Some numbers
Numbers tell some of the story about why things aren't gong well:

(source is information on the excellent resource the Rugby League Project)


A fairy strong relationship exists between league position and attendance that means crowds are bigger when the team finish higher in the league - not very surprising. Also, there seems to generally be declining interest in each of the venues as time passes, as almost every move of home has led to an increase in crowds, but only two other seasons have seen bigger crowds than the one before. The average crowds over the spells at The Stoop are lower than at The Valley or Griffin Park, but then the team has been at their consistent worst whilst at The Stoop.

Its not all about these number though, I wanted to understand things a bit better, so I asked Broncos fans on the RLFans forums what they thought. Most were confident of the team remaining in Super League in 2014 despite the rumours. Many were less confident that the club would stay in Super League after relegation comes back in and some thought this could be the final nail in the coffin that a disappointing number of Northern fans seem to be gleefully building for them (I had no positive responses on Twitter about the continued existence of the Broncos from fans of heartlands clubs).

Off the field
A couple of things that interested me was that a number of respondents wanted to stay at The Stoop, whilst the biggest problem the club faced is perceived to be the management (or mismanagement) of the club. I was expecting a lack of RFL support, resistance from their Union landlords, the cultural background of the game being northern and the lack of a permanent home to be the big problems - these were identified as issues, but the way the club is run was a bigger issue.

My personal understanding was that they had a passionate and supportive owner who had done all he could for the club. The view from the fans is different. The fans seem to suggest the management should shoulder blame for allowing situations to develop where the club are treated like second class citizens at The Stoop, with very limited access to bar and function facilities and even some of the training and medical equipment being off limits for the League players before and after games (not being allowed to use ice baths being one example). There were complaints of expensive rent for use of the facility being charged when such limited access is returned for the cost.

When considering the stadium they are based at, the management need to think of many factors, but surely value for money for the club and full access to the facilities should be as important as location and transport links (which, with The Stoop being off the Tube map, aren't ideal currently anyhow). In a way, I feel for the management as they get pulled in different directions - they needed to meet certain criteria for their licensing applications, lots of fans do seem to like The Stoop and there is a demand for a consistent base, but then they are possibly being overcharged and poorly treated, not being able to raise non-game day revenues at the stadium and it isn't brilliant for away fans to get to either.

Some fans and observers think a move to North London (probably Barnet) is the way to go for the base. Its on the tube map, there is a decent sized new stadium up there and north is better for travelling fans to get to - although this means South London will be left without a pro/semi-pro team but three will be in the north of the city limits. There is also the problem that residents near The Hive appear to hate the idea of professional sport being played there.

Also under question is how well the club links itself with the potential fans. I get the sense there is a feeling of not targeting the right people and not making enough sustained attempts at increasing crowds through marketing and offers. Now, I don't know about this first hand so I hope the club do a lot of this, but examples you read about them not having their own ticket sales line don't give much hope.

I'm also told there isn't a great deal of link to the impressively growing amateur and junior scene in the South East either. I get a sense that the club haven't really been able to foster themselves as an integral part of that community from fans' comments. Again, I hope this isn't a true reflection of how things are really going. There are Broncos fans that feel a link to the semi-pro teams in the South East, but don't feel that same link to the amateur side of things, almost as if there is a split community in the South with the league clubs and their fans as one group, then the grass roots community as a separate group, only bridged by the still small but happily growing number of players that have transitioned form one group to the other. If the club had London junior or amateur sides playing curtain raisers to Broncos games or training around the Broncos squad then surely this would foster a greater sense of community between what seems like two disparate groups at the moment.

Hopefully some of the fans observations were off the mark, I noted that a few of them had little interest in the amateur game so that might sway their responses. If I spoke to people who work in the amateur game, or people who work for the London club, they might suggest a closer affiliation between the two ends of the scale. Certainly comments in this months Rugby League World by former player Rob Purdham and local journalist Ian Ramsdale suggest there is a good and strengthening pathway between the amateur scene and the professional outfit.

On the field
Team quality is obviously another important factor. In the late 90s a few star names were signed into the London scene. Recognisable characters like Martin Offiah helped get publicity and interest, as well as a quality that pushed the team to a Wembley final in 1999. The team was still largely competitive and around the shake up for the playoffs in the first decade of this format, but since the licensing period has been introduced things on the pitch have got worse, not helped in the opinion of some by removing the quota exemptions preventing increased numbers of overseas players signing.

Another possibly linked factor is that the Broncos still have to hold to the same salary cap as the Northern clubs, but this makes them uncompetitive because unlike other industries there is no London uplift in the wages paid - in theory a player may choose to play up North to earn the same money but see less of it spent on rent and other costs of living that are generally lower in the North - an interesting economic argument that certainly got my attention.

One worry I have about the club is the loss of established players - Luke Dorn and Chad Randall are leaving, Dan Sarginson to Wigan is expected to be confirmed soon, Tony Clubb has made his intent to move clear and David Howell is another looking to leave. These are players that have either set records and spent years at the club, or come through at the club. In addition, Mark Bryant, Chris Melling, Tommy Lee, Scott Wheeldon, Chris Bailey and Micheal Witt are also on the exit list. The fans will be losing almost every player they can identify with at the club and with no new recruits announced and no exciting rumours about who might be coming in, 2014 isn't looking like a season where potential fans will be drawn in or existing fans will get a winning team. History suggests a new home might mean a boost in crowds, but then a poor team will not be well supported.

The thing that confuses me here is London have widely been reported to have been spending to the cap. A bulk of the squad has been made up with experienced Super League players or promising local talent, added to by players of apparent quality from overseas. Chris Bailey, signed for 2010, played regularly for Manly, winning a World Club Challenge, before coming to London. Antonio Kaufusi signed for 2012 having played over 100 NRL games and appeared once for both Australia and Queensland, with two NRL Grand Finals in his time at Melbourne. Michael Robertson, having debuted aged 18, played over 200 games in a 10 year NRL career which included a Grand Final hat-trick of tries in 2008 and a departing winners medal in 2011 before joining London. Shane Rodney also joined in 2012 after over 100 NRL games and Grand Final wins with Penrith and Manly. Craig Gower might have been in rugby union for a bit after some drunken misadventures forced him into exile, but before that had played Origin and regularly represented his country, even captaining them in a game against France, as well as winning a Grand Final with Penrith. Recent New South Wales player and NRL winner Jamie Soward replaced Gower for the second half of the 2013 season too. Luke Williamson is another former Grand Final winner to play in London in recent years.

Maybe the biggest issue has been apparent scrimping in non-playing staff, most pertinently with the appointment of Rob Powell in 2010, a man who lacked the presence or experience to really manage a professional Rugby League outfit. Who knows, if they had made a move for someone with a bit more quality in the head coach role might have seen more brought out of the strong experienced players and talented youngsters the squad boasted. Powell was removed from his position towards the end of 2012 season, but the damage had probably been done by then. His appointment was not forward thinking and, unfortunately for a man who came across as honest and likable, was possibly the downfall of the London Broncos on field hopes.

Newly announced redundancies for non-playing staff and a loss of players with no recruitment for 2014 isn't exactly good news for what the club will be able to produce on the field next season either. Relegation has to be the expectancy as things stand unfortunately.

The kids are alright
There are lots of bad things talked about above, but there is a silver lining to the cloud hanging over Rugby League in London and down South in general. The game is developing at lower levels.

We now have two London teams in the semi-pro ranks after the endurance and advancement of the Skolars has been supplemented by the Hemel Stags. Not far away there is Oxford RL and Gloucestershire All Golds represent the South East. That in itself is a good thing for the game. Crowds aren't great, but they aren't anywhere at that level, including at 'heartlands' clubs Oldham and Rochdale. The key is there is a development step for playing talent, and wider exposure for the sport. The clubs are building bottom up and don't appear to be rushing anything. It looks like it can be sensible and sustained, especially if the longevity of London Skolars at that level is an example to go from. Other clubs like Blackpool Panthers have lost patience and tried to rush things with awful club ending consequences. The London clubs hopefully will not do this.

Below the semi-pro level things are its fair to say booming. The Challenge Cup Final match day programme and Champion Schools finals played that weekend brought this home with RGS High Wycombe handsomely beating Castleford Academy in the Wembley curtain raiser. This emulated the win in 2012 by Surrey school Howard of Effingham. Massive participation increases have been seen by education establishments in the South East - almost 300 school teams played in competitions in the 2012-2013 academic year, 25 colleges and 13 universities too (compared to 2 and 6 respectively 2008-2009 academic year). 1500 players competed across 260 matches, double the amount of matches in 2008. This is growing the game and also reaping benefits as 14 local players graduated to play in London Broncos in Super League this year.

There is concern that the sport might not reap the increasing rewards from the talent being developed at junior level if London Super League representation ends. They think the pathway to the top will be lost and these talented athletes will move on to other sports. The counter argument is that the pathway still exists into the professional game through the semi-pro ranks and by the spread of development officials from other Super League clubs. A supporting anecdote to this point would be the amount of Cumbrian players making it at the top level with no Super League club in the area. The difference that would I suppose be countered is Rugby League is a more established sport in Cumbria so interest and desire to play will be a stronger draw and scouting networks will already be well advanced. I think this argument against the need for a London Super League club has some merit personally, but then that doesn't mean the sport doesn't need a top level outpost in the biggest business and media market.

All good news stories should be applauded and encouraged, and the progression of talent to the Broncos and then increasingly on to other top Super League clubs like St Helens and Wigan should be seen as a good news story for Rugby League nationally, not just in London.

So, should we be worried?
The growth in London is bigger than anywhere else in the country. If that growth can lead to a growth in support for a top level club, which you would expect it will, then there is no need to abandon what sceptics have long called the 'experiment'. Maybe London's glory time is yet to come as a much better rounded structure exists for the sport now. If this is the case, we can't risk losing the top level presence now for off field reasons. Sure, there are problems, these to filter through all levels because financial support is the main long-term problem for all of Rugby League, with risk of a reduction in RFL Development Officers and Broncos community staff a real threat to the promising forward momentum. The Broncos themselves have immediate on and off field problems that may be hard to overcome.

However, I think everyone should start to understand that this isn't a top level experiment in London, its a way of developing the sport nationally. We need London Rugby League to prosper for the sport to advance. Yes, we should be worried about what is happening at the Broncos, but not because the effect it will have on the club itself, but the negatives it will bring to the whole sport. The inability to spread, develop and strengthen resulting in a contraction back to our Northern heartlands would be a stick to beat us with, something the game doesn't need in already troublesome times. We should be worried about London because we should be worried about the sport.

I'd love to hear feedback and comments on this piece so please add a comment or drop me a tweet.

Premier League - Spending Gone Mad?

Sometimes I think the Premier League clubs have done it to themselves. They've allowed the transfer market to go nuts.

I mean, Arsenal once signed a 16 year old unproven Theo Walcott for at least £5million, potentially rising to £12million - he hadn't played a game in the Premier League yet. Shaun Wright-Phillips had played in the Premier League and for England, but £21million was paid by Chelsea for him to just be a squad player in 2005. Manchester City payed a then club record £19million for Brazilian Jo who had only managed to make a name for himself in Russia, to see him barely score or play. Manchester United signed a 19 year old Anderson for a reported £18million when he had barely proved himself in Portugal. David Nugent was taken to the Premier League for £4.5million after what was only an adequate lower leagues career and a surprising England call up where he stole a goal on the line in Andorra.

If you look around the Premier League, every club has paid record fees for previously unproven or unsuccessful players. Lots haven't worked out. Should it really surprise us then that a player who followed an inspirational half of Champions League football against Inter Milan with a couple of years of personal reputation enhancement, whilst not translating this to real success for his team, is now the subject of a world record transfer bid?

The £85+ Gareth Bale deal is reportedly close to completion as I write this. All this money for a player who hasn't won a trophy. He hasn't even pushed his team into the top four of it's division - he was fairly regular but not a driving force in Spurs' 2009-10 season when they finished fourth. It was only in the back stages of this season that he found himself a regular in the position he would begin to tear teams apart from, before he was an attacking full-back who couldn't find himself in a Tottenham winning team.

What about the signings coming in to the Premier League? How do they rank in this world of crazy money?

Well, the biggest deals have yet to be struck with Wayne Rooney still sulking and Luis Suarez not having promises kept to him. However, both are likely to move when money around £50million gets put on the table.

However, the biggest deal so far strikes of the craziness of the transfer merry-go-round. Manchester City have paid £30million for a Brazilian midfielder who has played most of his career in the Ukraine. Yes he has played plenty of Champions League football and has a UEFA Cup winning medal to complement all his domestic titles with Shaktar, but is a 28 year old with only 5 international caps who has never played in a top league really worth £30million?

City have spent biggest overall as well. Montenegro international Stevan Jovetic cost £22million from Fiorentina. Never won anything major, but experienced international and only 23 years old. Potentially overpriced. £20million went to Sevilla for Alvaro Negredo, a goal every other game striker with 14 Spain caps. 27 years old - compare it to the Spurs-Soldado I'll discuss below and its probably quite reasonable, but otherwise its silly money. Around £15million for Jesus Navas isn't lots by City's standards and he has featured in Spain World Cup and European Championship winning sides. Vastly experienced in Europe and a top league, maybe this one is sensible.

Tottenham are looking to compensate for Bale somewhat by signing Robeto Soldado for £26million. Developed at Real Madrid and featuring at all levels of the Spain youth teams, he has some pedigree. A decent goal scoring record in a three year stay at Valencia and a goal every other game in his 11 cap senior international career suggest he could be worth the spend. Again though, he's a player who hasn't won anything during his career. All this money for a dependable rather than prolific goal scorer who hasn't really led his team to much success. And at 28, is he going to improve to a world class standard?

Spurs' other big money signing is Paulinho from Brazillian side Corinthians for around £17million. He has European experience, but only in Lithuania and Poland, but in his South American career he has some significant silverware - a Cope Libertadores and a FIFA Club World Cup. He also played a part in the semi- and final wins for Brazil in this years Confederations Cup in the warm up to next years World Cup. He'll be keen to play well to keep himself in the national team picture for that world cup and add to his 17 caps so far. At 24, maybe this isn't so ridiculous.

There have been a few other eye catching deals. Chelsea paid £18million for promise in terms of young German Andre Schurrle, but 7 goals for Germany in 24 games is impressive - just getting into that squad as a forward is good work. Its massive money, but compared to some signings that have been made this year and in the last decade or so, this one isn't that crazy. Although, describing an £18million deal as not being that crazy just shows where we are.

Lower down the league, Victor Wanyama has only one season of major European football, playing and impressing in the Champions League with Celtic in 2012-13 season, but managed to command a £12.5miilion fee to take him to Southampton. A player worth less than a million two years ago is now apparently worth over £10million. Cardiff have arrived in the Premier League with a club record signing at £7.5million in Andreas Cornelius. Who? Well, he's a 20 year old Dane and has come from FC Copenhagen where he was top scorer in their most recent season - his only full professional season. Yep, that's right, one season in Denmark and he's apparently worth £7.5million. In my opinion this could be the craziest deal of them all.

Does anyone have their own personal favourite modern extravagance of a football signing for the new season? And does anyone really thing any player, let alone one that hasn't really done very much yet, should command the £100million Spurs are 'holding out for' in their negotiations with Real Madrid? Comment away football fans.

England's World Cup Half Back Options

Probably the most difficult positions England (or Great Britain) have found to fill in the last 20 years have been the crucial 6 and 7 positions.

Since 2008, 13 different combinations have started international matches for England. That starts to underline the problem, although Kevin Sinfield and Richie Myler have formed a bit of a regular pairing in the recent past. The real problem though is no-one knows who to pick, and arguments can be made for a number of players.

The front-runners and most mentioned names are Sinfield, Myler, Rangi Chase and Gareth Widdop. A host of other players could also be considered in the reckoning based on being in and around the England squads in recent years - Rob Burrow, Danny McGuire, Matty Smith, Jonny Lomax and Stefan Ratchford are those I see as being the outside chances of World Cup places, not to mention Danny Brough who has firmed tied himself to Scotland's cause now.

Burrow has played a lot of dummy half (you can't call him a hooker!), Lomax has predominantly been seen as a full-back this year at St Helens and Ratchford has played across the back line for Warrington, but all these players would are naturals in the halves. Their numbers are skewed by the positions they've played, but they are definite options for England.

Here are this season's current numbers for the players in the hunt (as of 1 August 2013 - Super League or NRL games only) to see how the players are going - (note: the available NRL stats aren't consistent with the Super League ones so Gareth Widdop is missing some numbers, and different positions played by some players affects some numbers, which I will try and point out where needed)
I'm going to start with Kevin Sinfield. It seems that he will be the captain of the team, so it would be a massive shock if he doesn't play. Some talk has been had about him being used at hooker if James Roby doesn't get over his injury issues, and people are still confused about the number 13 he wears on his Leeds shirt, but if he plays I can't see it being outside of the halves.

His leadership shouldn't be questioned, so with his club record so great in big matches you have to credit him in that regard and feel that will work in his favour for England selection. A big factor in close games is goal kicking, and of the kickers in the sample he is performing the best this year at 87% success. These factors almost makes him worth his place you would feel.

He also leads the group in some defensive categories - total tackles, marker tackles and tackles per game - as well as having an good tackle success percentage (93%). These numbers might be bumped up from a half back perspective because he tends to defend more central than halves as Rob Burrow is hidden out wide when he is playing a dummy half role. This forces more defensive involvement and it should be noted he give away the most penalties of the player looked at.

The real criticism is his offensive productivity - he isn't likely to break the line or bust a tackle very much and he hasn't had much immediate impact on tries being scored, with a contribution of less than a one try or assist per game. Given how often he is on the ball, it has to be considered a weakness that he isn't creating more scores.

Richie Myler has been his chief partner of late in England sides. Myler has been impressive this year in taking more responsibility in organising and running the Warrington attack in Lee Briers extended absences. Contributing tries is the biggest positive for him - having scored the most and assisted the second most of England's options. Only Rangi Chase, who touches the ball a lot more, makes more metres per game out of the players who have played in the halves predominantly this year. He can break tackles and hit gaps as well as get the ball away to teammates. He is definitely a threat in attack, maybe more across the board than any of the other options.

As well as the organisation concerns that he now seems to have put to bed, the main question over Myler might be defence. A 90% tackle success, a low number of penalties and a reasonable effort as a marker defender suggest he might have upped his game in this area too. That leaves only his long kicking game as a potential issue, but if he has Sinfield and Sam Tomkins around then he has support in that area.

Rangi Chase is a controversial figure in this shake up. Many don't see him as being an acceptable choice because of his eligibility being on a residency basis. But he is available so I'll not dwell on that issue.

He leads many categories in the sample when it comes to having ball in hand - tackle busts, carries, gaining metres, attacking kicks and offloads are all things he does in greater amounts than the others. He has also kicked a few 40/20s, which can be useful. As you would expect with the player who touches the ball the most, he also makes the most errors, although an average of almost 2 per game could be regarded as too high when England will be playing teams that can take advantage.

He is a creative players who tries things and pulls things off that other players simply can't do, but the big question is in defence. He has the worst tackle success of the group by a wide margin, especially from his main rivals for the places, and this is despite him being by far the least active in defence (aside from Lomax, who having played mostly full-back wouldn't be called on to tackle often being behind the defensive line). Chase only makes 7.3 successful tackles per match and he has missed more tackles than any other player. Temperament may also be an issue with previous history of suspension and being the only England eligible player to have spent time in the sin-bin this year.

Gareth Widdop is a player who hasn't been given a starting role in the halves for England yet. This is despite the major point on his side that he is the only option with NRL experience, and some experience at that winning the Grand Final with Melbourne in 2012 and getting a big money contract with St George for 2014 onwards.

His stats are hard to judge as they aren't complete and I can't be sure they are recorded consistently with the Super League numbers. The areas he performs best are average gain per carry and the relatively low error count. His try involvement is very low and he doesn't carry the ball much, although he has to compete with the Queensland and Australia 'Big 3' for play making responsibilities and who wouldn't play second fiddle to them. His defensive numbers aren't great either though, but I would put a big asterisk on all his figures in that he does play in the better stronger competition. He also has an injury question mark, with his NRL season almost certainly ended by injury already.

Of the rest, Rob Burrow's lack of errors is impressive, but his high number of dummy half runs can partially be ignored when considering him as a half. His versatility could help hm feature in the squad and the odd burst out of dummy half from him could be dangerous, but I'm not looking at him as a 'hooker' option here. He hasn't missed many tackles, but he doesn't make many either and often get helped out by his teammates, so I don't know how much you can read into this.

Danny McGuire is another like Sinfield and Widdop who hasn't really created a great deal for teammates. He has missed quite a lot of the season with injury and doesn't stand out in any of the categories. He hasn't really performed at the international level in the past and his chance may have ran out because of his lack of impact on the current season, although with Leeds you never know what form might be to come from August onwards, which might put him more in the picture.

Matty Smith got into the frame during the 2012 Exiles series and then got a move to Wigan where he will experience a final and playoff football for the first time as a key player in the team. He has shown usefulness in 40/20 and drop goal kicking, but I'm not sure this is enough to overcome some of the other issues. His defending isn't always brilliant, although a 93% tackle success is promising. He doesn't make many metres himself and doesn't directly get involved in many tries, even though he often features in the build up. The biggest plus for him is a pre-existing relationship with Sam Tomkins for those sweep plays you would look to use Sam on, but I can't see that getting him selected. He is only really an option if others get injured before October.

Jonny Lomax hasn't been playing in the halves, which accounts for his low tackle and kicking numbers. He hasn't given away many penalties or errors, but his relative lack of involvement would be a cause for this. He is another who has missed a lot of play through injury and seeing him in the full-back role for Saints means he too would only be an option if there are injuries to other, despite he definite talent and creative potential.

Stefan Ratchford is an interesting one for me. His versatility and club form could see him find a place in the squad yet, but his lack of game time as a half might work against him getting that 6 shirt on his back. He has good numbers for tackle busts and breaks, but this will be assisted by him running in the centres where you get more space and often oppose smaller players. He has a glorious natural talent for the game, but I don't really see him making the final cut unfortunately - he isn't first choice for his club so you wouldn't expect him to be for his country.

One final player to look at is Danny Brough, who we know won't be playing for England. He has had a great season so far with Huddersfield. He has been very creative and his kicking game, whether attacking or from deep (6 40/20s), has been a massive factor in Huddersfield's season. He's a good goal kicker, although second to Sinfield. He doesn't have stand out defensive numbers and you think he can be targeted, particularly by direct running second row forwards. He would be a very nice option for England and I'd probably on form have him in my starting pair despite some defensive questions but he'll be leading Scotland instead.

So, who would I pick. Well for all the criticism I've labelled at Sinfield for years as I feel he has been overrated as a player, you can't overrate him as a leader. He is the captain and I would pick him in my half back combo. His kicking game can be a momentum changer as he quickly drives penalties to touch or knocks over goals from all angles. Also, we'll need to defend hard and physically against the Aussies and Kiwis and his added size and tackling numbers will help in that regards. You can surround him with speed and spark in the other six backs with the talent available to Steve McNamara in a fully fit England squad.

Alongside him I would pick Richie Myler. They've developed some rapport in the last four or five England games and he does have the attacking spark Sinfield might lack whilst not being as much of a liability as Rangi Chase can be when he doesn't come off, which against the best in the world it will be hard to do for an inconsistent and often very individual talent.

Widdop does play NRL but he won't be match ready you have to expect. I also wouldn't play him with Sinfield as I don't think there would be enough creativity and sharp attacking instinct in front of some tough defensive lines. If he were fit, and if Sinfield weren't the captain, then I'd probably put the 6 shirt on his back. In an ideal world I think I would want Widdop and Brough in this world cup squad as the starting halves, but Sinfield and Myler are the best combination that will be available in my opinion.